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首页> 外文会议>International Conference of the International Association for Management of Technology >VALUATION OF INNOVATION PROJECTS WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY: REASONS BEHIND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF REAL OPTIONS
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VALUATION OF INNOVATION PROJECTS WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY: REASONS BEHIND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF REAL OPTIONS

机译：高不确定性创新项目的估值：实际选择实施背后的原因

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Many papers have been discussing the nonadherence of classical financial tools - like net present value (NPV), return on investment (ROI), discounted cash flow in general (DCF) to the evaluation of innovation projects involving high uncertainty. There are an attempt to use some new tools to cope at least partially with the challenge of valuation and selection of right projects. Among these tools, we can find the real options approach. However, they all require data that are unavailable for most radical innovation projects. The later point leads us to the following research question: why firms are looking for new tools for valuation of projects and which are the effective questions behind it? Based on five in-depth case studies based on grounded research in companies in Brazil searching for radical innovation (three Brazilian owned - two multinationals, one startup company; one multinational American owned), where we have longitudinally accompanied specific projects, we propose a discussion on the main issues behind the search for such techniques, and which are the conditions for their successful introduction in an organization. We identify three main issues behind the valuation problem: a) portfolio management (traditional issue); b) commercialization issue (pricing of the technology or price of the company); c) internal disputes for budget. Our conclusions show that the critical success factors for a implementation of real options are: a) the involvement of other people than R&D (e.g. finance, marketing, etc.); b) building capabilities on managing uncertainties; and c) development of competences on identifying and defining the possible decision points where to exercise the options (abandon, continue, or improve the project).
机译：许多论文一直在讨论古典金融工具的非关系 - 就像净目前的价值（NPV），投资回报（ROI），一般贴现现金流量（DCF），以评估涉及高不确定性的创新项目。试图使用一些新工具至少部分地应对估值和选择权限项目的挑战。在这些工具中，我们可以找到真实的选择方法。但是，它们都需要对大多数激进创新项目无法使用的数据。后来的点引领我们提出以下研究问题：为什么公司正在寻找项目估值的新工具，这是它背后的有效问题？基于五次深入案例研究，基于巴西公司在寻求激进创新的公司的基础研究（三个巴西拥有 - 两个跨国公司，一家创业公司;一名跨国公司），我们有纵向陪同的具体项目，我们提出了一个讨论关于搜索这些技术背后的主要问题，这是他们在组织中成功介绍的条件。我们确定了估值问题背后的三个主要问题：a）组合管理（传统问题）; b）商业化问题（公司技术或价格定价）; c）预算的内部纠纷。我们的结论表明，实施真实选择的关键成功因素是：a）其他人的参与比研发（例如财务，营销等）; b）管理不确定性的建立能力; c）在识别和定义可能决策点的职务开发，在何处开展行使选项（放弃，继续或改进项目）。

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