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Population Aging and Economic Dynamics in Ukraine: Models of Endogenous Growth Theory and Empirical Estimates of Current Challenges

机译：乌克兰人口老龄化和经济动态：内源性增长理论的模型及当前挑战的实证估计

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Among the global problems faced by different countries in the last decade, the article looks at population aging. In the context of assessing the impact of population aging on economic dynamics, the scientific novelty of research is to find a solution to this problem in the plane of conceptual ideas formulated in theoretical models of endogenous growth. The authors emphasize the necessity of a state policy aimed at supporting "active aging", which will help to activate human capital and economic growth by increasing formal employment of people over 60 and reducing informal employment accordingly. Using the linear regression equations, the hypothesis that there is a positive effect of active aging on economic dynamics and productivity in Ukraine has been statistically confirmed and quantitative estimates of the impact of these factors have been obtained. The authors' calculations show that the positive effects of such policy, in particular, are possible with the increase in health care costs, which depend on the activity and mobility of the retirement age. Among the challenges, the authors tested the hypothesis of an increase in informal employment and the shadow economy in the absence of government policies aimed at addressing aging. The use of VAR modeling has made it possible to confirm the relationship between real GDP, informal employment and the size of the shadow sector of the Ukrainian economy. The impulse response functions and variance decomposition confirm the negative impact of the growth of informal employment and, accordingly, the shadow economy on the economic dynamics in Ukraine. The practical significance of this study is the application of its results in the development of measures of economic policy and strategy of socio-economic development of Ukraine.
机译：在过去十年的不同国家面临的全球问题中，文章看着人口老龄化。在评估人口老龄化对经济动态的影响的背景下，科学的研究新颖性是在内源性生长的理论模型中制定的概念思想平面中找到解决这个问题的解决方案。作者强调了旨在支持“积极老化”的国家政策的必要性，这将有助于通过增加60多人的正式就业并相应地减少非正式就业的人力资本和经济增长。使用线性回归方程，假设存在积极衰老对乌克兰的经济动态和生产率的积极效果，已经统计证实，并获得了这些因素的影响的定量估计。作者的计算表明，这种政策的积极影响尤其可能随着医疗费用的增加而可能取决于退休年龄的活动和流动性。在挑战中，作者测试了非正式就业和阴影经济增加的假设，因为旨在解决老龄化的政府政策。使用VAR建模使得可以确认真正的GDP，非正式就业和乌克兰经济暗影部门之间的关系。脉冲响应函数和方差分解证实了非正式就业增长的负面影响，并因此对乌克兰经济动态的影子经济影响。本研究的实际意义是其成果在制定乌克兰社会经济发展战略方面的发展。

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