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Will US Liquefied Natural Gas be able to compete with the Russian gas markets in the long term?

机译：美国将液化天然气能够长期与俄罗斯天然气市场竞争吗？

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Even if the massive arrival of US LNG on the markets over the next few years will fundamentally change the configuration of world gas supply, a distinction must nonetheless be made between the short term and the long term, and between the European and Asian markets. On the European markets, only the US LNG produced by existing installations can currently be valued at a cost similar to that of Russian gas (between USD 5-6/MBTU) imported by pipeline. However, it will prove difficult for LNG from installations that have not yet been built (USD 8/MBTU) to compete with Russian gas. In theory, if oil prices increase to around USD 70/bbl, gas prices will automatically increase, making American LNG competitive. In view of the production costs, however, the Russians can easily grant their European clients discounts relative to the indexed contract prices. This spot market strategy already applies to two-thirds of the volumes produced. In economic terms, the Russians therefore have major levers, both short-term, by imposing prices lower than the indexed prices, and longer-term, by deterring investment decisions on future LNG trains. As proof, US exports of LNG to Europe in 2016 and 2017 accounted for less than 10% of total US LNG exports. Nevertheless, behind the scenes of this price war, the Europeans do not want to jeopardize their energy security by over-reliance on the Russian gas supply. The difficulties in launching the Nord Stream 2 project show that in spite of proven competitiveness and significant levers on margins, geopolitical problems make the Russian gas strategy vulnerable.
机译：即使在未来几年的市场液化天然气对市场的大规模到来将从根本上改变世界燃气供应的配置，即使是在短期和长期之间以及欧洲和亚洲市场之间的区别。在欧洲市场，目前只有美国液化天液，目前才能以与管道进口的俄罗斯天然气（5-6美元/ MBTU）的成本为价值。然而，从尚未建造的装置（8美元/ MBTU）与俄罗斯天然气竞争，它将证明LNG难以实现困难。从理论上讲，如果油价增加到70美元/ BBL，天然气价格将自动增加，使美国LNG具有竞争力。然而，鉴于生产成本，俄罗斯人可以轻松授予其欧洲客户相对于索引合同价格的折扣。该现货市场策略已经适用于生产的三分之二。在经济方面，俄罗斯人因此拥有短期内的主要杠杆，通过施加低于指数的价格，通过阻止对未来液化天然气训练的投资决策，价格低于指数价格和长期。作为证据，美国2016年和2017年的LNG对欧洲的出口占美国液化甘油总出口总额的不到10％。然而，在这个价格战的场景后面，欧洲人不希望通过对俄罗斯的气体供应过度依赖他们的能源安全。启动Nord Stream 2项目的困难表明，尽管有验证的竞争力和严重利润率，地缘政治问题使俄罗斯天然气战略变得脆弱。

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