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2005 COTTON PRICE PERSPECTIVE: SLUGGISH MARKET EXPECTED

机译：2005棉价格透视：预计市场迟缓

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摘要

The world marketplace for cotton contains the multiple forces of weather conditions, supply and demand, and a complex policy environment that can result in unexpected price movements. Clearly, price risk has been increased substantially for industry participants since the U.S. cotton production industry became mainly dependent on export demand. The sharp 30-cent per pound price drop for 2004 cotton lint boosted demand; yet with decreased prices, fewer foreign cotton acres are expected in the year ahead. But, because of improved varieties and yields, world production will likely exceed consumption by a small margin. Therefore, another year of plentiful supplies are indicated, with U.S. prices probably averaging in the mid-forty cent range. However, cotton acreage in the U.S. will likely increase because of low prices for the alternative crops of corn and soybeans. With the U.S. price level largely dependent upon export demand, price fluctuations will result mostly from changes in foreign production, supplies and export demand for cotton, and trade policies.
机译：世界棉花市场含有多种天气条件，供需和需求的力量，以及可能导致意想不到的价格变动的复杂政策环境。显然，由于美国棉花生产行业主要取决于出口需求，因此行业参与者的价格风险大幅增加。 2004年棉花棉绒增强需求的夏普30美分每磅价格下降;然而，随着价格下跌，未来一年将在未来的外国棉花植物上。但是，由于各种品种和产量改善，世界生产可能会超过小幅的消费。因此，美国可能在中期的范围内进行了一年的大量用品。然而，由于玉米和大豆的替代作物的价格低，美国的棉花种植面积可能会增加。随着美国的价格水平在很大程度上取决于出口需求，价格波动将主要来自外国生产，供应和棉花的出口需求的变化和贸易政策。

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