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The Increasing Comparative Value of Geothermal in California - 2018 Edition

机译:加州地热比较价值 - 2018年版

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This paper expands its review of Orenstein and Thomsen's (2017) analysis of of the comparative economic value of geothermal in California to include analysis from 2012 through 2018. The key finding is that over this period, geothermal has steadily become a more valuable resource than solar PV in the California ISO (CAISO) wholesale energy market and in meeting resource adequacy (RA) requirements. In 2012, a solar PV profile was worth approximately $3-4/MWh more in wholesale energy value than a geothermal profile because solar PV was concentrated in the higher-priced peak load periods. As more solar PV has entered the California power system, the higher-priced "net" peak load periods shifted to the late afternoon and early evening. By 2015, a geothermal energy profile was worth about $3-4/MWh more than solar PV, and by 2017-18, that geothermal energy profile's value grew to approximately $9/MWh more. Similarly, solar PV capacity value has declined dramatically with increased solar penetration, while geothermal capacity value has remained the same. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC, 2018) has advised that for planning purposes, new solar PV should obtain only an 18% capacity rating (MW) in 2018, dropping to 2% in 2022-2030; at the same time, geothermal capacity ratings remain in the range of 80%-90% (or greater) of maximum seasonal production. As solar PV capacity ratings in California continue to trend toward zero, this adds approximately $18.50/MWh in comparative capacity value to geothermal if the geothermal plant displaces a new combustion turbine.
机译:本文通过2018年扩大其地热在加利福尼亚州,包括从2012年的分析比较经济价值的奥伦斯坦和汤姆森公司(2017)分析审查的主要发现是,在此期间,地热已逐渐变得比太阳更有价值的资源PV在加州ISO(CAISO)批发能源市场和满足资源充足(RA)的要求。在2012年,太阳能PV曲线是在比地热轮廓批发能量值价值约$ 3-4 /兆瓦更多,因为太阳能光伏集中在价格较高的峰值负载周期。随着越来越多的太阳能光伏发电已经进入了加州电力系统,价格较高的“网”高峰负荷期间转移到了下午和傍晚。到2015年,地热能量分布约$ 3-4价值/兆瓦以上的太阳能光伏,以及2017 - 18,地热能源的个人资料的价值增长了约$ 9 /兆瓦时更多。类似地,太阳能光伏容量值急剧增加太阳能渗透下降,而地热容量值一直保持不变。加州公共事业委员会(CPUC,2018)已表示,进行规划,新的太阳能光伏应该在2018年只获得了18%的额定容量(MW),下降到2%,在2022至2030年;同时,地热的额定容量保持在最大季节性生产的80%-90%(或更大)的范围内。正如在美国加州的太阳能光伏的额定容量继续趋势趋向于零,如果地热发电厂取代了新的燃气涡轮机,这增加约18.50 $ /兆瓦时比较容量值,以地热。

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