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Safety situation forecast of mining system based on dynamic division of states

机译：基于国家动态划分的矿业系统安全状况预测

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摘要

A forecast method of mining system safety situation is proposed based on dynamic division of states. On the basis of the number of total mine safety accidents, the boundary lines was determined according to the comparative analysis of residuals between estimated values based on seasonal index trend fitting model and actual number of total mine safety accidents, obtaining the dynamic division of transition states. Then weighed Markov forecast model under the influence of environment factors was built, by which, the safety situation of mining system was predicted. It was found that dynamic division can improve prediction accuracy, which enables the prediction model to better reflect the safety situation of mining system.
机译：基于各国动态划分的提出了矿业系统安全情况的预测方法。在总矿井安全事故的数量的基础上，根据季节性指数趋势拟合模型的估计价值与实际矿山安全事故数量的估计价值之间的比较分析确定了边界线，获得了转型状态的动态分割。然后在环境因素的影响下称称量的马尔可夫预测模型建成，预测采矿系统的安全情况。结果发现，动态分割可以提高预测精度，这使得预测模型能够更好地反映采矿系统的安全情况。

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