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An Oil and Gas Decision-Making Taxonomy

机译：石油和天然气决策分类

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Business under-performance in the upstream oil and gas industry, and the failure of many decisions to return expected results, has led to a growing interest over the past few years in understanding the impacts of current decision-making tools and processes and their relationship with decision outcomes. Improving oil and gas decision-making is thus, increasingly, seen as reliant on an understanding of what types of decisions are involved, how they should be made in order to be optimal, and how they actually are made in the "real world". There has been significant work carried out within the discipline of cognitive psychology, observing how people actually make decisions. However, little is known as to whether these general observations apply to decision-making in the upstream oil and gas industry. Nor has there been work on how the results might be used to improve decision-making in the industry. This paper documents the development of a theoretical Oil and Gas Decision Making Taxonomy (OGDMT) that seeks to lay a "level playing field" decision space within which to judge the processes and tools of optimal decision-making as the first step in this research. The OGDMT builds on established ideas in the human decision-making literature, but is itself novel, and involves four different dimensions: level of investigation; task constraint; value function; and the information structure of the environment. It is concluded that decision scenarios at different places in the taxonomy will likely involve different decision-making tools, data and processes for the achievement of optimal decision-making. The results of this work can be applied, for example, to the question of whether decisions about reserves should be made using deterministic or probabilistic tools, data and processes.
机译：业务表现不佳的上游石油和天然气行业，以及许多决定未能返回预期的结果，导致了在过去的几年中越来越大的兴趣在了解当前决策的工具和流程的影响及其与关系决策结果。提高石油和天然气的决策是这样，越来越多的看作是对什么类型的决策参与的理解依赖，应如何进行，以最优的，怎么他们实际上是在“现实世界”的制作。已经有显著工作认知心理学的学科范围内进行，观察人们实际上如何做决定。然而，鲜为人知的是，以这些一般性的意见是否适用于决策在上游石油和天然气行业。也没有出现在结果可能如何被用来改善决策在业界工作。这是旨在奠定其内来判断最佳的决策是本研究的第一步的流程和工具，一个“公平竞争”的决定空间的纸质文档的理论石油和天然气决策分类（OGDMT）的发展。该OGDMT建立在人类决策文学成立的想法，但本身是新颖的，而且涉及到四个不同的层面：调查的水平;任务限制;值的功能;和环境的信息结构。结论：在分类不同的地方决定的情况很可能会涉及到不同的决策工具，数据和流程最佳决策的成就。这项工作的成果能应用于，例如，是否应使用确定性或概率工具，数据和流程作出有关决定储备的问题。

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