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Good and bad practice in the communication of uncertaintiesassociated with the relationship between climate change andweather-related natural disasters

机译:在不确定的沟通中与气候变化与公寓相关自然灾害之间的关系的良好和不良的做法

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There is evidence that climate change is affecting the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of weather-related natural disasters. However, the exact details of this relationship are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Scientists, policy-makers and others have recognized how this connection could influence public support for decisions and policies around climate change, such as measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This has led to a number of cases in which stakeholders in the public policy debate about climate change have over-stated or understated uncertainties, relative to the scientific assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Although such distortions in the expression of uncertainties are motiv-ated by a desire to justify particular policy positions, they could instead undermine the credibility of, and trust in, information sources and diminish public support.
机译:有证据表明气候变化影响了与天气有关的自然灾害的频率,强度和地理分布。然而,这种关系的确切细节受到不同程度的不确定性。科学家,政策制定者和其他人已经认识到这一联系如何影响公众对气候变化的决策和政策的影响,例如减少温室气体排放的措施。这导致了许多案例,其中有关气候变化的公共政策辩论的利益攸关方具有过于规定或低调的不确定性,相对于政府间议会关于气候变化的科学评估。虽然这种扭曲在表达不确定因素是由愿望特定的政策职位证明特定政策职位的主旨,但它们可能会破坏信誉,信息来源和递减公共支持。

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