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Mathematical Modelling of Cervical Cancer Vaccination in the UK~*

机译：英国宫颈癌疫苗接种的数学建模〜*

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Human papillomaviruses (HPV) are responsible for causing cervical cancer andanogenital warts. The UK considered a national vaccine program introducing one of two li-censed vaccines, Gardasil~(TM)and Cervarix~(TM). The impact of vaccination is, however, difficult topredict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partner-ships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infec-tiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of HPV transmission, based upon about thousands ofscenarios incorporating uncertainty in these processes, were developed to describe the infectionspread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarci-noma) and anogenital warts. Each scenario was then fitted to epidemiological data to estimatetransmission probabilities and the best-fitting scenarios used to predict the impact of twelve dif-ferent vaccination strategies. Our analysis provides relatively robust estimates of the impact ofHPV vaccination, as multiple sources of uncertainty are explicitly included. The mostinfluential remaining source of uncertainty is the duration of vaccine-induced protection.
机译：人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）负责导致宫颈癌和遗传疣。英国审议了一个国家疫苗计划，介绍了两个锂循环疫苗中的一个，Gardasil〜（TM）和Cervarix〜（TM）。然而，由于HPV感染，性伴侣模式，颈瘤的进展，颈瘤的进展，筛选的准确性以及疾病的持续时间，疫苗接种的影响是困难的主张。基于在这些过程中纳入不确定性的大约数千个官方的HPV传输动态模型，以描述宫颈肿瘤，宫颈癌（鳞状细胞和腺癌）和口腔疣的感染和发育。然后将每个场景拟合到流行病学数据到估计算法和用于预测12个不同疫苗接种策略的影响的最佳拟合方案。我们的分析提供了对HPV疫苗接种的影响的相对稳健的估计，因为明确包括多种不确定性来源。占疫苗的剩余不确定性源是疫苗诱导的保护的持续时间。

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