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Impact of Planning Uncertainties in Power Plant Operation Planning

机译：规划不确定性在电厂运营规划中的影响

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Due to the implementation of new markets, i.e. intraday markets as well as the markets for reserve, a higher number of planning uncertainties has to be considered within the operation planning of power plants. Besides outages of thermal power plants and prices at day-ahead wholesale markets, the prices at the intraday market and the market for minute reserve as well as the requested amount of reserve energy by the transmission system operator are not known at the point of time when the operation planning is carried out. Thus, prognoses for these values have to be made. For a better integration of the stochastic characteristics of these values into the planning process, different possible realizations of the uncertain input data in form of scenarios should be modeled instead of a single consideration of estimated values. Within this paper, a stochastic optimization method is described, which adequately integrates the stochastic characteristics of the relevant input parameters into the operation planning process, resulting in distribution functions of typical output values like the contribution margin.
机译：由于新市场的实施，即盘中市场以及储备市场，必须在发电厂的运营规划中审议更多的规划不确定性。除了在未来的热电厂和价格下降之外，在线市场的价格和传输系统运营商的储备能源的价格以及传输系统运营商的价格在一定时间内都不知道进行操作规划。因此，必须对这些值进行预测。为了更好地整合这些值的随机特征，进入计划过程中，应建模以场景形式的不确定输入数据的不同可能的实现，而不是单一考虑估计值。在本文中，描述了一种随机优化方法，它充分集成了相关输入参数的随机特性进入操作规划过程，从而导致典型输出值的分布函数，如贡献余量。

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