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Evaluation of Aseismatic Fuzzy Reliability for Gas Field Pipeline NetworkBased on Monte-Carlo Simulation

机译：蒙特卡罗仿真对天然气场管道的荒地模糊可靠性评价

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摘要

A method for calculating aseismatic reliability of gathering and transferring pipeline network in large-scale gas field is put forward. Taking the maximal seismic intensity S that might occurred during the design service life in the engineering site of gas gathering and transferring pipeline as seismic loads, taking the fortification intensity I_d that is determined during pipelines design as structure resistance, this paper comes up with random reliability analysis model of pipeline to predict the seismic damage based on both reliable and failure states of pipeline structure. This model is characteristic of seismic destruction. In order to avoid the non-linear programming hard problem caused by the calculation of network reliability, the paper applies breadth first search technology of graph theory and proposes the algorithm for judging the probability of connectivity reliability for the multi-source and multi-terminal network. Combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the algorithm is applied to the aseismatic reliability calculation of super-large gas pipeline network. To give the detailed process of the calculation of seismic reliability for pipeline network under the impact of a serious seism at 7 magnitude, this paper takes a gas field in western China with 37 pipelines, 3 gas gathering stations and 3 industrial users as an example, finds out the corresponding links of aseismatic weakness. The example demonstrates the simplicity, validity and practicability of this method.
机译：一种用于计算聚会的抗震可靠性和在大规模气田传送管道网络的方法，提出了。以最大地震强度S有可能发生在集气的工程场地的设计使用寿命期间传递管道作为地震荷载，采取设防烈度I_d，它是在管道设计结构的电阻，本文出现随机可靠性管道的分析模型来预测基于流水线结构的可靠和故障状态震害。该模型是地震破坏特性。为了避免引起的网络的可靠性的计算的非线性规划硬问题，本文适用图论的广度优先搜索技术，提出了算法用于判断的连接可靠性的概率为多源和多终端网络。蒙特卡罗仿真相结合，该算法被应用于超大型天然气管道网络的抗震可靠性计算。得到的用于下一个严重的地震的影响管道网络的地震可靠度的计算的详细处理在7级，本文以气体场中国西部37条管道，3个气体采集站和3个工业用户作为一个例子，发现抗震薄弱环节相对应。该实施例证明该方法的简单性，有效性和实用性。

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