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Scenario Analysis on the Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Wuliangsuhai Lake Basin

机译：乌兰海海湖流域水环境承载力的情景分析

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Rapid social-economic development and the ever-increasing water pollutant discharge of Wuliangsuhai lake basin made the water quality deteriorated; the lake eutrophication intensified and heavily restricted the sustainable development of the watershed’s social economy. Wuliangsuhai lake basin was selected as the study area. By the use of system dynamics simulation model the water environment and social economy were connected, and three kinds of improved scenarios (resource-environment constrained type, social economy constrained type, coordinated development type) were proposed based on the inertial and planning schemes. Ten indexes of water environment carrying capacity, i.e. the GDP per capita, ratio of industrial output to GDP, et al., were selected, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used. Results showed that, the water environmental capacity utilization ratios of COD and TN in the resource-environment constrained scenario were 69.5% and 57.9% in 2020, respectively. And the water environment carrying capacity index increased from 0.19 in 2008 to 0.31 in 2020. Under the coordinated development scenario, the surplus environmental capacity of COD and TN were 1755.46t/a, 260.21t/a respectively, and the water environment carrying capacity index was up to 0.29 in 2020. The sustainable development plan was proposed and some feasible suggestions and strategies were put forward.
机译：乌兰海湖盆地的快速社会经济发展和不断增加的水污染物排放使水质恶化;湖富营养化愈演愈烈，严重限制了流域社会经济的可持续发展。乌兰苏海湖盆地被选为研究区。通过使用系统动力学模拟模型，建议基于惯性和规划计划提出了三种改进的情景（资源环境约束类型，社会经济约束类型，协调发展类型）。十个水环境载物承载能力，即人均GDP，工业产出与GDP等人的比例，使用模糊综合评价方法。结果表明，资源环境约束方案中COD和TN的水环境产能利用率分别为69.5％和57.9％。携带能力指数的水环境从2008年的0.19增加到2020年的0.31。根据协调的发展情景，COD和TN的剩余环境能力分别为1755.46T / A，26​​0.21T / A，以及携带能力指数的水环境2020年高达0.29.拟议可持续发展计划，提出了一些可行的建议和战略。

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