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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development >Precipitation Trend Analysis by Mann-Kendall Test: A Case of Tianchang County Anhui Province, China
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Precipitation Trend Analysis by Mann-Kendall Test: A Case of Tianchang County Anhui Province, China

机译：MANN-KENDALL测试的降水趋势分析 - 以天昌县安徽省，中国

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The purpose of this research is to study the temporal variability of precipitation time series of Tianchang County in Anhui Province, China to aid in the understanding of the state of the hydrology of the catchment. Trend analysis of one of the main component of the water balance of a catchment and a climate variable, precipitation was conducted with the aim of detecting a possible trend in the precipitation time series of Tianchang County, the non-parametric Mann- Kendall test was applied to precipitation series from 1951-2010 of Tianchang County. It was performed using Trend (version 1.0.2) to identify the significant positive or negative trends in the precipitation data if any. The 59 years period of precipitation data for the different towns in whole area showed, on the whole, some significant trend at an alpha level of 0.01 and 0.05 when grouped into the four seasons present in the area. The trend analysis revealed an overall upward and significant trend in five towns namely Datong, Xinjie, Shiliang, Qinlan and Tongcheng with downward statistically non-significant trend in the other ten areas .Using hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis states that there is no trend and alternative state there is a trend. From the results we reject the null hypothesis within the level of confidence 0.05 and 0.01. The rising rate of precipitation in some months and decreasing in others signifies an overall random pattern in the time series. This result is a part contribution to the effect of Climate change on hydrology and indicates that there is still room for research on the impact of climate change to ensure sustainable development in future.
机译：本研究的目的是研究安徽省天昌县降水时间系列的时间变化，以帮助了解集水区水文的状态。趋势分析了集水区水平和气候变量的主要成分之一，采取了沉淀的目的，目的是检测天昌县的降水时间序列中可能的趋势，应用了非参数族肯德尔测试从天昌县1951 - 2010年降水系列。它是使用趋势（1.0.2）执行的，以确定降水数据中的显着正面或负趋势是否有。整个地区不同城镇的59年的降水数据显示，总的来说，当分组到该地区存在的四季时，α水平为0.01和0.05的一些重要趋势。趋势分析揭示了五个城镇的全面上升和重要趋势，即大同，新界，石良，秦兰和桐城在其他十个地区的下降统计学上的非重大趋势。假设检测，无效假设，没有趋势和没有趋势替代国家有一个趋势。结果从结果中拒绝了0.05和0.01的置信水平内的零假设。在几个月内降水率上升并在其他几个月减少意味着时间序列的整体随机模式。这一结果是对气候变化对水文影响的贡献，表明，仍然有研究气候变化的影响，以确保将来可持续发展。

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