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首页> 外文会议>European Social Simulation Association. >Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks
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Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

机译：不断变化的气候，不断变化的行为：适应性的经济行为和住房市场对洪水风险的反应

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Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden nonmarginal changes in economic system are expected. This is especially relevant for urban development in coastal and delta areas where the probabilities of natural hazards such as catastrophic floods and hurricanes increase dramatically with climate change. New information about risks and micro-level interactions among economic agents alters individual location choices and impacts urban land markets dynamics potentially leading to the emergence of critical transitions from the bottom-up. We address this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics into a spatial agent-based model of a coastal city. We build upon the previous research on agent-based modeling of urban land markets, and make a step forward towards empirical modeling by using actual hedonic study and spatial data for a coastal town in North Carolina, USA. Decentralized urban market with adaptive expectations about property prices in the areas with increasing hazard probabilities, may experience abrupt changes that shift the trends of spatial development and pricing.
机译：近年来，空间计量经济学和分析空间经济型材高涨。然而，方法论上，它们旨在解决空间城市系统的潜在动态的边际变化。然而，在气候变化的世界里，预计会突然突然的经济体系中的非气体变化。这与沿海和三角洲地区的城市发展尤其相关，其中自然灾害如灾难性洪水和飓风的可能性随着气候变化而增加。有关经济代理商之间风险和微观互动的新信息改变了个别地点选择，并影响城市土地市场的动态可能导致自下而上的临界过渡的出现。我们通过将土地市场动态的适应性预期纳入沿海城市的空间代理模型来解决这一差距。我们建立了对城市土地市场的基于代理的建模研究，并通过使用美国北卡罗来纳州沿海城镇的实际储层研究和空间数据向前迈向实证建模的一步。分散的城市市场，对具有危险概率增加的地区房地产价格的自适应预期，可能会经历突然变化，转移空间发展和定价趋势。

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