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Fiscal Regimes: It's not just costs that drive LNG prices

机译：财政制度：这不仅仅是推动LNG价格的成本

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There is much talk and speculation around the impact of the next wave of LNG due to come onto the market from the US driven by the shale oil/gas revolution over the last few years. This paper examines the competitive position of several alternative sources of LNG relative to the US LNG exports into the North Asian market. Specifically the Area 1 and Area 4 Mozambique LNG scheme and three generic Australian schemes: a conventional deepwater gas source, a coal seam gas source and a prospective shale/tight gas supply. The paper also looks at the fiscal position of each of these non-US projects to examine the impact on the delivered price of LNG. End buyers argue that US sourced LNG delivered ex-ship to North Asia will be less than $11/MMBtu. If these prices are realised, the integrated projects making up the non-US suppliers will struggle to compete for the current round of LNG contracts. However, the volume of US LNG is expected to be limited to 40-50 MMtpa of supply (including currently approved projects). Once this US LNG is contracted, pressure for lower prices or alternative pricing mechanisms should ease as new demand is sourced from higher cost locations. For projects looking to be competitive marketing LNG into North Asia for initial delivery this decade, it seems that the US ‘benchmark’ may prevail. The $11/MMBtu delivered price is predicated on a sub $4/MMBtu feedstock gas price. If and when US gas prices rise above $5/MMBtu and provided LNG carrier rates do not collapse, the longer-term delivered price for US gas will not be materially below the equivalent price for ‘conventionally priced’ oil-indexed LNG from integrated non-US supplies into North Asia. Also, existing oil indexation formulae will be competitive to US supplies if the oil price slips to around $80/bbl. The paper demonstrates that Australian deepwater conventional gas to LNG supply will be competitive to Mozambique’s deepwater supplies. This is partly attributable to the higher liquids content in much Australian gas than in the Mozambique gas and to the harsher fiscal terms that apply to the Mozambique upstream investment; the Government take is over fifty percent higher than for a similar Australian project. Australian LNG from unconventional gas sources is predicted to struggle against the low unit cost Mozambique supplies even with a total tax burden of only one third of the Mozambique levels.
机译：在过去几年中，由于来自美国页岩油/天然气革命的市场驱动的市场，围绕下一波LNG的影响有很多谈话和猜测。本文研究了LNG若干替代来源相对于美国LNG进出北亚市场的竞争地位。具体地，区域1和区域4莫桑比克LNG方案和三种通用澳大利亚方案：常规深水气体源，煤层气体源和一个前瞻性页岩/致密气供应。本文还研究了这些非美国项目的财政状况，以检查对液化天然气价格的影响。最终买家争辩说，美国的Sourced LNG向北亚交付前船舶将不到11美元/ MMBTU。如果这些价格得到了意识到，构成非美国供应商的综合项目将努力争夺当前的LNG合同。然而，预计美国LNG的量将限制在40-50 MMTPA的供应（包括目前批准的项目）。一旦美国液化天然气收缩，较低价格或替代定价机制的压力应放松，因为新的需求来自更高的成本位。对于希望将竞争激销的项目液化液化营销液化到北亚初始交付本年，似乎美国的“基准”可能会占上风。 11美元/ MMBTU提供的价格是售价为4美元/ MMBTU原料燃气价格。如果我们的天然气价格超过5美元/ mmbtu，并且提供液化天然气载体率并没有崩溃，我们的天然气的长期交付价格将不会低于“常规价格”石油公司的相当价格从综合的非 - 美国供应进入北亚。此外，如果石油价格滑动至80美元/桶的价格，现有的石油指数公式将对我们提供竞争力。本文表明，澳大利亚深水传统气体对液化天然气供应将竞争莫桑比克的深水供应。这部分是由于超过莫桑比克气体中，并适用于莫桑比克上游投资的更苛刻的财政条件太多澳大利亚天然气在较高液体含量;政府采取比类似澳大利亚项目高出55％。预计澳大利亚LNG从非传统气体来源抵御低单位成本莫桑比克供应的斗争，即使只有三分之一的莫桑比克水平的税收负担。

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