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首页> 外文会议>APPI PEERS Conference >MOVE FROM TAKING RISK TO MANAGING UNCERTAINTY USING REAL OPTIONS AS A STRATEGIC AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT TOOL. A CASE FOR USING OPTION PRICING MODEL (OPM) TO EVALUATE PROJECT INVESTMENT
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MOVE FROM TAKING RISK TO MANAGING UNCERTAINTY USING REAL OPTIONS AS A STRATEGIC AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT TOOL. A CASE FOR USING OPTION PRICING MODEL (OPM) TO EVALUATE PROJECT INVESTMENT

机译：妨碍风险使用真实选择作为战略和资本投资工具管理不确定性。使用期权定价模型（OPM）来评估项目投资的案例

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摘要

The Pulp and Paper industry relies heavily on the traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) based Net Present Value (NPV) for making capital investment decisions. The deficiency of Static DCF-NPV model is that, once a pattern of cash flow is established, the management does not have the option to change the direction as new information are available. However, flexibility to alter the investment decision as and when new information available is a powerful strategic and capital investment tool. Research is abundant in establishing strong precedence for applications of "Real Options" in operational and strategic settings to provide useful insights in the evaluation of irreversible investments under uncertainty. The application of Option Pricing Models (OPM) such as Binomial and the Black-Scholes for strategic planning and capital investment opportunity has been done in other industries but not in the Pulp and Paper industry though the latter is highly capital intensive with historical evidences suggesting poor Return on Investment (ROI) for many implemented capital projects. In this paper a case for using OPM as a strategic and capital investment tool in the decision making process is advocated by using the example of a hypothetical North American mill considering investments to modernize its operation.
机译：纸浆和造纸工业严重依赖于传统的折扣现金流（DCF）基于净目前的价值（NPV），以进行资本投资决策。静态DCF-NPV模型的缺陷是，一旦建立了现金流模式，管理管理没有选择将方向改变为新信息。但是，灵活地改变投资决策以及当可用的新信息是一个强大的战略和资本投资工具。研究在运营和战略环境中建立了“真实选择”在运营和战略环境中的应用中的优先权，在不确定性下提供了有用的见解。选项定价模型（OPM）的应用，如二项式和战略规划和资本投资机会，但在其他行业中已经在纸浆和造纸业中进行了虽然后者是高度资本密集，但历史证据表明穷人对许多实施资本项目的投资回报（ROI）。在本文中，利用假设北美工厂的示例，通过考虑投资现代化其运作，以在决策过程中使用OPM作为战略和资本投资工具的案例。

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