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The effects of fiscal policy shocks in Romania. A SVAR Approach.

机译：财政政策冲击在罗马尼亚的影响。 SVAR方法。

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There has always been an interest in analyzing the effects of fiscal policy on the main macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, employment, but compared with the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, fiscal policy has received less attention. With the recent economic recession fiscal policy was regarded with more interest since it was expected to be effective in economic recovery. An approach commonly used to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on economic activity is based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models with different scheme of identification of the shocks. This paper analyzes the effects of a government expenditure shock and tax revenue shock on economic activity by applying a VAR methodology to Romanian data. For identification of fiscal policy shocks I first used a recursive approach (Cholesky decomposition) and second I apply the methodology proposed by Perotti (2002), based on Blanchard and Perotti (1999). The results obtained are consistent with other studies on emergent economies. The impact of fiscal shocks on macroeconomic variable is reduced and the fiscal multipliers are very small.
机译：始终有兴趣分析财政政策对GDP，通货膨胀，利率，就业的主要宏观经济变量的影响，但与对货币政策对经济活动的影响的实证文献相比，财政政策已收到较少注意力。随着最近的经济衰退财政政策，由于预计在经济复苏方面有效，因此受到更多利益。一种常用于估计财政政策冲击对经济活动的影响的方法是基于具有不同识别冲击方案的向量自回归（VAR）模型。本文通过对罗马尼亚数据应用VAR方法来分析政府支出休克和税收冲击对经济活动的影响。为了确定财政政策冲击，我首先使用递归方法（Cholesky分解）和第二次我根据Blanchard and Perotti（1999）申请Perotti（2002）提出的方法。获得的结果与其他关于紧急经济体的其他研究一致。财政冲击对宏观经济变量的影响降低，财政乘法器非常小。

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