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Risk Assessment of the Bureau Storm Disaster by the Application of Extension Theory in Sichuan

机译：四川省延伸理论在拓展理论中的应用风险评估

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摘要

Based on 1966-2013 daily precipitation data of 141 sites in Sichuan, GIS elevation and social statistics in Sichuan, extension theory and analytic hierarchy process, return period, correlation function and other methods to build the risk evaluation model of the bureau storm of local heavy rain in Sichuan and application analysis. Extension can create process models in selected hazard factors, disaster environment hazard bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation capability assessment as a factor, the total amount of heavy rain, the average amount of heavy rainfall, the maximum daily amount of rain, topography, slope, population density, places are GDP, the proportion of arable land, per capita GDP, highway mileage rating parameters studied risk assessment criteria as a secondary factor assessment, calculation of AHP rights assessment factor weight coefficient, comprehensive study of the correlation function rainstorm disaster risk rating, indicating the occurrence of heavy rain in Sichuan disaster is the result of various factors interaction. Application results show that the extension theory is an effective risk assessment methodology.
机译：基于四川，GIS高程，在四川，拓理论和层次分析法，回报期，相关函数等方法，社会统计141位1966年至2013年逐日降水资料建立局部大的局风暴的风险评估模型雨在四川和应用分析。扩展可以在选定的危险因素，灾害环境承灾体，防灾减灾能力评估的一个因素，暴雨总量，强降雨的平均量，降雨，地形，坡度最大日用量，创建过程模型，人口密度，地方GDP，耕地面积比例，人均GDP，研究风险评估标准作为一个次要因素评估公路里程的评价参数，AHP权评估因素的权重系数，相关函数暴雨灾害风险综合研究的计算等级，表明四川灾区暴雨的发生是多种因素相互作用的结果。应用结果表明，可拓理论是一种有效的风险评估方法。

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