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Study on industrial manufactured goods trade potential between Chinese and the five Central Asian countries under the Belt and Road policy background

机译：腰带和道路政策背景下的中亚国家工业制造商业贸易潜力研究

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摘要

After China announced "The Belt and Road" strategy, which has aroused strong repercussions in the world, and the relevant countries on this strategy have very high expectations. Five Central Asian countries are one of the core areas of "The Belt and Road" strategy. This article use date derived from the bilateral trade present situation of the manufactured goods of China and the five Central Asian countries to study the potential trade in manufactured goods between China and Central Asia five countries. Firstly, we use the index method. The analysis results show that Chinese and the five Central Asian countries trade of manufactured goods has a good degree of trade integration, but also has a strong advantage in export competitiveness. However, in terms of trade complementarity in addition to Kyrgyzstan are not ideal. Then, the variables such as population, railway transportation, border, whether it belongs to the Shanghai cooperation organization and whether it belongs to the WTO organization of the import country and export country are added into the gravity model. The text uses the above model to collect data for empirical analysis, and then use the regression model to calculate the trade potential. The results show that the trade of manufactured goods between China and the five Central Asian countries is in the stage of trade expansion, and has a certain space for development. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the paper gives some suggestions to promote the development of trade in manufactured goods between China and five Central Asian countries.
机译：在中国宣布“皮带和道路”战略之后，这一战略引起了世界强烈的影响，而这些战略的相关国家则具有很高的期望。五个中亚国家是“皮带和道路”战略的核心领域之一。本文使用来自中国和五个中亚国家制造商的双边贸易目的情况的日期，研究中亚和中亚五个国家的制造商潜在贸易。首先，我们使用索引方法。分析结果表明，中国和五个中亚国家的制成品贸易具有良好的贸​​易一体化，而且在出口竞争力方面也有很强的优势。但是，在贸易互补性方面，除了吉尔吉斯斯坦并不理想。然后，诸如人口，铁路运输，边境等变量，无论是属于上海合作组织，是否属于世贸组织组织的进口国家和出口国加入重力模型。该文本使用上述模型来收集实证分析的数据，然后使用回归模型计算贸易潜力。结果表明，中国与五个中亚国家的制造商业在贸易扩张阶段，拥有一定的发展空间。最后，根据分析结果，本文提出了促进中国与五个中亚国家的制造商业贸易发展的建议。

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