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Time-Series Analysis on the Impact Level upon Taiwan Stock Market with Events of Signing International Agreements

机译:台湾股市影响水平与签署国际协议事件的时间序列分析

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Stock investment is one of the available conventional financial commodities in the investment market. The individual price of stocks including stocks in the field of industrial, medical, financial, overall, etc. Is subject to many different aspects. The relationship between aspects, the international economy, and the stock price is complex and is not easy to be categorized. Moreover, the trend of the world increases the cooperation and links between countries and different nations. Many agreements in tourism, trade, etc. Are signed between countries. In this paper, we focus on the effect on the stock prices caused by the agreements signed between Taiwan and other countries. The time series method is utilized to analyze the effect on the stock price forecasting caused by 5 of the incidents including WTO, Taiwan-Nicaragua FTA, Taiwan-Honduras FTA, and Taiwan-Japan BIA. Both the pre-event and the post-event periods are included for observing the fluctuation behavior of the stock market price. The MAPE value is used as the criterion to verify the correctness of the forecasting result. The MAPE values obtained in all experiments are all less than 10%. It implies that the time series method presents good forecasting ability in the analyzed cases.
机译:股票投资是投资市场中可用的传统金融商品之一。包括工业,医疗,金融,整体等领域的股票的个人价格受到许多不同方面的影响。方面,国际经济和股票价格之间的关系很复杂,不易分类。此外,世界的趋势增加了各国与不同国家之间的合作和联系。在国家之间签署了许多旅游,贸易等协议。在本文中,我们专注于台湾和其他国家之间签署的协议造成的股价的影响。时间序列方法用于分析由WTO,台湾 - 尼加拉瓜FTA,台湾 - 洪都拉斯自由贸易协定和台湾 - 日本比亚造成的股价预测对股价预测的影响。均包括前赛事和事后期间,用于观察股票市场价格的波动行为。 MAPH值用作验证预测结果的正确性的标准。所有实验中获得的MAPE值都小于10 %。它意味着时间序列方法在分析的情况下提出了良好的预测能力。

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