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Modeling the Evolution of Ideological Landscapes Through Opinion Dynamics

机译：通过观点动态建模思想景观演变

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摘要

This paper explores the possibilities to explain the stylized facts of empirically observed ideological landscapes through the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. Empirically, left-right self-placements are often not normally distributed but have multiple peaks (e.g., extreme-left-center-right-extreme). Some stylized facts are extracted from histograms from the European Social Survey. In the bounded confidence model, agents repeatedly adjust their ideological position in their ideological neighborhood. As an extension of the classical model, agents sometimes completely reassess their opinion depending on their ideological openness and their propensity for reassessment, respectively. Simulations show that this leads to the emergence of clustered ideological landscapes similar to the ones observed empirically. However, not all stylized facts of real world ideological landscapes can be reproduced with the model. Changes in the model parameters show that the ideological landscapes are susceptible to interesting slow and abrupt changes. A long term goal is to integrate models of opinion dynamics into the classical spatial model of electoral competition as a dynamic element taking into account that voters themselves shape the political landscape by adjusting their positions and preferences through interaction.
机译：本文探讨了通过涉及动态的有界置信模型解释经验观察到的思想景观的风格化事实的可能性。经验上，左右自我展示通常不会分布，但具有多个峰（例如，左键 - 右极端）。一些程式化的事实是从欧洲社会调查的直方图中提取的。在有界置信模型中，代理商反复调整其思想街区的思想地位。作为古典模型的延伸，代理人有时会根据其思想开放性及其重新评估的倾向完全重新评估他们的意见。模拟表明，这导致了与经验所观察到的集群思想景观的出现。然而，并非所有风格化的真实思想景观的形象都可以通过模型再现。模型参数的变化表明，思想景观易受有趣的缓慢和突然变化的影响。长期目标是将舆论动态模型整合到选举竞争的经典空间模型中，作为一种动态元素，考虑到选民通过互动调整他们的立场和偏好来塑造政治景观。

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