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Modeling the Individual Process of Career Choice

机译：塑造职业选择的个人进程

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摘要

Making a suitable career choice is a difficult task. Every year, many adolescents prematurely end their studies, commonly citing "having made the wrong choice" as the main reason. This is a problem, both for the adolescents making these choices, and for society, which bears at least part of the cost of higher education. A thorough understanding of how adolescents make these career choices is essential to identifying the factors responsible for why the wrong choices are often made. Identity development theory emphasizes the role of exploration in career choice, but neglects many of the micro-level processes likely to play an important role. Similarly, traditional decision theory often focuses on optimization of choice, thereby neglecting the cognitive mechanisms that may explain deviations from optimal choice. Here, we present a novel computational approach to modeling longterm decision making. We combine elements of the macro-level theory on identity development with a firm rooting in micro-level cognitive processes. Specifically, we model decision making as an iterative process in which individuals can explore new options or more deeply investigate options that are already under consideration. The output of our model allows us to analyze how the quality of decisions depends on various factors, such as aspiration levels, the tendency to explore new options, and the ability to judge the fit of an option with one's interests and capabilities. We present some preliminary results that already show our approach can lead to surprising conclusions, encouraging further development of this model in the future.
机译：制作合适的职业选择是一项艰巨的任务。每年，许多青少年过早地结束了他们的学习，通常引用“做出错误的选择”作为主要原因。这是一个问题，用于使这些选择以及社会的青少年，至少有部分高等教育成本。彻底了解青少年如何使这些职业选择是必不可少的，对于识别往往是错误的选择负责的因素是必不可少的。身份开发理论强调探索在职业选择中的作用，但忽略了许多可能发挥重要作用的微观过程。同样，传统决策理论通常侧重于优化选择，从而忽略了可以解释从最佳选择的偏差的认知机制。在这里，我们提出了一种模拟Longterm决策的新颖计算方法。我们将宏观级理论的元素与铸造微级认知过程中的企业结合在身份开发中。具体而言，我们模拟决策作为一个迭代过程，其中个人可以探索新的选项或更深入调查已经考虑的选项。我们的模型的产出允许我们分析决策的质量如何取决于各种因素，例如愿望水平，探索新选择的倾向，以及判断一个人的兴趣和能力的选择的能力。我们提出了一些已经表明我们的方法可能导致令人惊讶的结论的初步结果，鼓励将来进一步发展该模型。

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