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Evaluation of monotonic trends for streamflow in austral Amazon, Brazil: a case study for the Xingu and Tapajós rivers

机译：巴西澳大利亚亚马逊流出单调趋势的评价 - 以Xingu和Tapajós河流为例

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摘要

This paper has the goal of evaluating monotonic trends in the Xingu and Tapajós river basins in the Austral Amazon region, Brazil. Non-parametric statistical tests such as Mann-Kendall, Bootstrap MannKendall, Sen and Bootstrap Sen are applied on streamflow gauging stations data, to determine the significance and magnitude of possible trends. Data in these river basins is relatively scarce, with time series ranging from twenty to forty years, having many gaps. Former studies indicate a decreasing trend for both annual average and minimum streamflow values in the Tapajós river basin, with 99 % confidence level, and a decrease in maximum values in the Xingu river basin, with 90 % confidence level. However, past analyses have only used one station near the basin outlet. This study uses data from 7 gauging stations in the Xingu basin and 14 stations in the Tapajós basin. Results indicate opposite trends at the 95 % confidence level for different regions in the basins, and for different flow regimes. For the Xingu river basin, trends in the minimum flow for different sub-basins even out at the Altamira station, near its outlet. For the Tapajós river, the southeastern part of the basin has increasing trends, while the southwestern part decreases. At the Itaituba station, they also balance out.
机译：本文评估了在澳亚马逊地区，巴西鑫谷和塔帕若斯河流域单调趋势的目标。非参数统计测试，如MannKendall，引导MannKendall，森和引导森被应用在水流测站数据，以确定可能的趋势的意义和幅度。数据在这些流域相对匮乏，时间序列，从20到40年里，有不少差距。前研究表明在塔帕若斯河流域每年都平均和最低径流值的下降趋势，99％的置信水平，而最大值在兴谷河流域的下降，90％的置信水平。然而，过去的分析只使用了盆出口附近一个车站。本研究使用来自在新固盆地7个测量站，并在盆塔帕若斯14个站的数据。结果表明在95％的置信水平不同的区域中的盆，并针对不同的流态相反的趋势。对于鑫谷河流域，在不同的子流域连出在阿尔塔米拉站，其出风口附近的最小流量的趋势。对于塔帕若斯河，盆地的东南部有增加的趋势，而西南部降低。在伊太图巴站，他们也平衡了。

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