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Oil refinery planning multi-projects under uncertainty

机译：炼油厂规划在不确定性下的多项目

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This article proposed multi-project thinking for planning of production of oil products, allowing one to take into account both complication of such projects and influence of uncertainty during their realization. The scenario planning and a model of choice under uncertainty are used. A procedure of payoff matrix formation is described concerning planning and making decision on the multi-projects of oil and gas industry. As alternatives, the scenarios of multi-project realization are examined with the different oil product portfolio. Every multi-project scenario is formed only on the basis of technological connections. In the long term, it is possible to form the scenarios with the opportunity to take into account the start of each individual project depending on investment possibilities and market situation. As uncertain outcomes, the provision of a multi-project with oil resources is considered based on the projected rate of oil production at the well or field. It allows taking into account the uncertainty related to exhaustibility of the natural resource used. As elements of a payoff matrix in the article, it is suggested to use indexes of commercial efficiency of investments. The questions of determining the dimension of the matrix and the selection of the planning horizon are discussed. The results of application of the proposed approach to the multi-project of oil processing developed for the geological and economic conditions of the Orenburg region of the Russian Federation are described. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been created. They are useful for determining the desired plans for the implementation of the project, the capital intensity of the created production and the risk of changes in the volume of oil production within the examined planning horizon.
机译：本文提出了为生产石油产品生产规划的多项项目思考，允许其中考虑该项目的复杂性和不确定性在实现期间的影响。使用了不确定性下的情景规划和选择模型。有关石油和天然气工业多项目的规划和决定，描述了支付矩阵形成的程序。作为替代方案，使用不同的油产品组合检查了多项目实现的情况。每个多项目场景仅在技术连接的基础上形成。从长远来看，可以根据投资可能性和市场情况来形成机会的机会，有机会考虑每个项目的开始。作为不确定的结果，根据井或田地的石油产量预计的投资速度，提供了与石油资源的多项目。它允许考虑到与所使用的自然资源的穷举相关的不确定性。作为文章中收益矩阵的要素，建议使用投资的商业效率指标。讨论了确定矩阵的维度的问题以及计划地平线的选择。描述了在俄罗斯联邦的奥伦堡地区地质和经济条件开发的石油加工多项目拟议方法的应用结果。结果表明已经创建了合理的解决方案。它们可用于确定项目实施所需的计划，所产生的生产的资本强度以及审查的规划地平线内的石油产量变化的风险。

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