• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Dam Safety Management and Engineering >Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change on Planned Hydro Dams in Swat River Basin
【24h】

Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change on Planned Hydro Dams in Swat River Basin

机译：气候变化对斯瓦特河流域计划水坝的水文影响

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In Pakistan, there exists already a rather high awareness on the threats that climate change might pose on water resources. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan in particular Swat basin has experienced several disastrous floods during recent past.There is large potential of hydropower development in the basin and many projects are planned to be constructed in the coming years. Mohmand Dam, largest multipurpose storage dam in Swat basin is being constructed in the basin. Therefore, it is pertinentto investigate the impact of climate change in this basin. A hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is coupled with regional circulation models (RCMs) to assess the potential water resources and other water budget components of the future under the changing climate. The hydrologic model was calibrated and validated against the measured stream flow data using observed weather data and inputs from the global SWAT database. The SWAT and RCM performed well, especially on an annual basis.Climate change impacts on hydrology were then quantified by driving SWAT with the existing and future climate scenarios. The outcome of the research indicates that it is very likely that temperature will increase further in the future. It will result inearly snow melt and peak flow pattern of the basin will shift from summer months to spring season. The modelling results reveal that overall increase in temperature will be about 1.3-2.2°C and 2.3-3.75 °C in the century (2011-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. The future projections also indicate that it is very likely that precipitation in the future will also vary with respect to baseline, the expected change in the precipitation will vary from 16% to 23% and -20% to 13.8% for the RCP 4.5and RCP 8.5 respectively. The change in temperature, shift of snow melt season and precipitation will impact on the flow pattern of the basin and it is very likely that overall flow in the basin (Swat basin) will be more in the future. There will be more flows in the river from November to May and decrease in flows from June to December compared to existing scenario. The change in future precipitation simulated by the RCM produced 18% increase in & face runoff, and 24% decrease in base flow and 20% increase in evapotran-spiration in the river (Swat Basin) on an annual basis.
机译：在巴基斯坦，对气候变化可能对水资源造成的威胁，已经存在相当高的意识。近年来，巴基斯坦的Khyber Pakhtunkhwa省巴基斯坦省经历了几次灾难性的洪水。水电开发的潜力大，计划在未来几年建造许多项目。莫姆湖，在盆地中制造了SWAT盆地中的最大多功能储罐。因此，它涉及调查气候变化在这个盆地的影响。水文模型土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）与区域循环模型（RCMS）相结合，以评估在不断变化的气候下未来的潜在水资源和其他水预算组成部分。使用观察到的天气数据和来自全局SWAT数据库的输入来校准水文模型并针对测量的流流数据验证。 SWAT和RCM表现良好，特别是每年的基础。然后通过将SWAT与现有和未来的气候情景驾驶SWAT来量化对水文的影响影响。研究结果表明，将来可能会进一步增加。它将导致盆地的沉思融化和峰值流动模式将从夏季转向春季。建模结果表明，在rcp 4.5和RCP 8.5分别在世纪（2011-2099）下，温度的整体增加约为1.3-2.2°C和2.3-3.75°C。未来的预测也表明，未来的降水也会因基线而异，降水的预期变化将从16％到rcp 4.5和rcp的-20％至13.8％。分别为8.5。温度变化，雪融化季节和降水的转变将影响盆地的流动模式，并且盆地的整体流动将来会更加流动。与现有场景相比，11月从11月到5月将在河流中有更多的流量，从6月到12月减少。 RCM模拟的未来降水的变化产生了18％的径流径流，碱流量减少了24％，每年河流（SWAT盆地）蒸发蒸发量增加了20％。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号