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Neural Network in the Anticipation of Electricity Use: An Investigation from Micro and Macro Perspectives

机译:电子网络预期电力使用:从微观和宏观观察的调查

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In our contemporary fiscal lives continuously expanded by technological innovations, electricity is playing an increasingly momentous role. That said, ameliorating electricity consumption anticipation has become a most imminent and pressing issue. Considering the large quantity and high frequency of electric load data (96*197 groups), this paper, from a micro perspective, combines wavelet decomposition with BP neural network to forecast the electric load data of users. The results show that the prediction results are better than that of purely using BP neural network. In addition, from a macro perspective, this paper analyzes the essential factors of electricity consumption in China. Through establishing seasonal adjustment model, our research predicts China's electricity consumption in the next 10 years. The result indicates that the electricity consumption reaches its peak of 2008.541 billion kWh in the third quarter of 2024, and the power supply should be planned well in advance.
机译:在我们当代财政生中,通过技术创新不断扩大,电力正在发挥越来越重要的作用。 也就是说,改善电力消费预期已成为最迫在眉睫和最紧迫的问题。 考虑到电负荷数据(96 * 197组)的大量和高频,本文从微观的角度来看,将小波分解与BP神经网络相结合,以预测用户的电负荷数据。 结果表明,预测结果优于使用BP神经网络优于纯度。 此外,从宏观角度来看,本文分析了中国电力消费的基本因素。 通过建立季节性调整模式,我们的研究预测了未来10年的中国电力消耗。 结果表明,电力消耗在2024年第三季度达到2008.541亿千瓦时的峰值,应提前策划电源。

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