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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Optimization-Driven Architectural Design >Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Surface Water of a Trans-boundary Basin: Case Study Yarmouk River
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Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Surface Water of a Trans-boundary Basin: Case Study Yarmouk River

机译：评估潜在气候变化对跨界盆地地表水的影响：案例研究Yarmouk河

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In this paper, the long-term hydrological response of a semi-arid trans-boundary basin to climate changes was analyzed. The basin is the Yarmouk River. The basin is located in a semi-arid region between Jordan and Syria. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under sstatistically downscaled climate change scenarios. For this goal, the physically process-based semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used. The impacts of climate change on YRB flow regime and water cycle components under pre-development and post-development conditions were evaluated by driving SWAT model under the projected 21 st-century climate change scenarios. The scenarios applied were the SRES A1B and A2 and CMIP5 RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 that had been downscaled from the CGCM3 and CanESM2 climate variables output, respectively. These scenarios were downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The results showed that the YRB surface water is very vulnerable to climate change. Under the pre-development conditions, the impacts are believed to be at high risk. Under the post-development conditions, the impacts were of much less risk and proved the water harvesting is an efficient way for adaptation. The applied changes of temperature from +0.9 to +3.7°C and of precipitation from +6% to -32% during the 21st century indicated a reduction in river flow ranges from -2.6% to 60% under the pre-development conditions and from -0% to -36.4% under post-development conditions. Such evaluation can help in enhancing the basin management, sustainable planning and building the adaptation schemes.
机译：本文分析了半干旱跨界盆地对气候变化的长期水文响应。盆地是Yarmouk河。该盆地位于约旦和叙利亚之间的半干旱地区。采用的方法是基于模拟盆地在SStatisticlecy较低的气候变化方案下的水文响应。为此目标，已经使用了物理过程的半分布水文模型土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）。通过在预计的21世纪气候变化场景下驾驶SWAT模型，评估气候变化对日期间流动制度和水循环组分的影响。应用的场景是SRES A1B和A2和A2和CMIP5 RCP 2.6，RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5分别从CGCM3和CANesm2气候变量输出级分别逐渐缩小。这些场景通过统计缩小模型（SDSM）缩小。结果表明，YRB地表水非常容易受气候变化。在预开发条件下，据信遭到高风险。在开发后的条件下，影响的风险越来越小，并证明了采集的适应性是一种有效的方法。在21世纪的+ 0.9至+ 3.7°C的温度变化和降水量在21世纪的+ 6％至-32％，表明河流流量减少-2.6％至60％在预发展条件下和开发后条件下-0％至-36.4％。此类评估可以帮助加强盆地管理，可持续规划和构建适应计划。

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