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EFFECT OF COMPLIANCE PERIOD ON PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RISK METRICS: PEAK-OF-THE-MEAN, MEAN-OF-THE-PEAKS, AND CUMULATIVE RELEASE

机译:合规期对绩效评估风险指标的影响:平均峰,峰值和累积释放

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The behavior of a disposal system site with hazardous and radioactive wastes is quantitatively evaluated in a risk assessment using the risk metrics of peak-of-the-mean, mean-of-the-peaks, and cumulative release. These metrics are commonly used to estimate risk and demonstrate compliance allowing the site to obtain an operating license. Compliance may be determined according to satisfying a regulatory standard that includes a time period of interest such as a compliance period. This paper evaluates the effect of the compliance period on risk metrics of peak-of-the-mean, mean-of-the-peaks, and cumulative release using a simplified model. The model includes the following parameters: waste container failure, release from a disposal site, and transport of the release with retardation to a receptor. Monte Carlo sampling is used to investigate the impacts of uncertainty on the risk predictions. The sampling accounts for uncertainty within the disposal system and utilizes probability distribution functions for the modeled parameters. Risk predictions are determined for a range of compliance periods and the effect of the compliance period on these performance assessment risk metrics is quantitatively demonstrated. The results are normalized with respect to a containment time that is characterized as spanning conditions from poorly contained to well-contained. The results from the analysis indicate that the compliance period should be greater than the containment time for the disposal system Risk predictions for each metric are stable and accurate when the compliance period is greater than the containment time for the disposal system. If the compliance period is less than the containment period, risk predictions using these metrics can be unstable and inaccurate.
机译:使用峰值峰值,峰值和累积释放的风险指标,定量评估了处理系统现场具有危险和放射性废物的行为。这些指标通常用于估计风险并证明允许网站获得运营许可的合规性。可以根据满足规律标准确定包括诸如合规期的时间段的监管标准来确定。本文评估了使用简化模型的平均峰值,峰值和峰值和累积释放的风险度量的效果。该模型包括以下参数:废物容器故障,从处理现场释放,以及将释放与受体的延迟运输。 Monte Carlo抽样用于调查不确定性对风险预测的影响。采样算用于处理系统内的不确定性,并利用建模参数的概率分布函数。危险预测确定一系列合规期,量化符合性期对这些性能评估风险指标的影响是量化的。结果相对于容纳时间归一化,其特征在于跨越富含良好的涵盖条件。分析结果表明,当合规时期大于处置系统的容纳时间时,合规时期应大于处理系统风险预测的遏制时间稳定和准确。如果合规期小于遏制期,则使用这些指标的风险预测可能是不稳定和不准确的。

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