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An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Monetary Policy upon the Real Estate Investment in China

机译:货币政策对我国房地产投资影响的实证分析

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By using relevance analysis, Granger reason-result relationship analysis and co-integrated analysis methods, the paper empirically analyzed the impact of China’s monetary policy upon the real estate investment and the time-lag. Through studying the Chinese relative monthly data from 1999 to 2006, the following conclusions has been drown: In the long run, there is a stable positive co-integrated relationship among interest rate, money supply and the ratio of real estate investment and gross fixed assets investment. Money supply has somewhat effect on the real estate investment. It is need to emphasize that interest rate is NOT the effective instrument of controlling the real estate investment. In the short run, interest rate and money supply have the same influence on the real estate investment, but it is not remarkable. Hence, monetary policy has impact upon real estate investment, and that the impact of money supply upon real estate market is much apparent than interest rate policy. Impact time lag of money supply upon real estate market is two seasons.
机译:通过使用相关性分析,GRANGER原因关系分析和共同综合分析方法,经验证明了中国货币政策对房地产投资和时间滞后的影响。通过研究1999年至2006年的中国相对月度数据,下列结论已淹没:从长远来看,利率,货币供应和房地产投资与固定资产的比例存在稳定的积极共同关系。投资。货币供应对房地产投资有点影响。需要强调利率不是控制房地产投资的有效工具。在短期内,利率和货币供给对房地产投资具有相同的影响,但它并非显着。因此,货币政策对房地产投资产生影响,而且金钱供应对房地产市场的影响比利率政策要明显。房地产市场对货币供应的影响时间滞后是两个季节。

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