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DISRUPTIONS FOR THE SUSTAIN ABILITY FOR LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES

机译：轻型税车维持能力的中断

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In this paper vehicles (of different size and powertrains) are investigated for their optimum service life to minimise their greenhouse gas emissions and contribution to global warming. The method uses the best available energy production and usage data for life cycle analysis (more than well-to-wheel as materials, manufacturing, consumables and recycling/reuse are included) for conventional, hybrid, through to full electric types. Also accounted for is the change in vehicle use with age in a vehicle fleet, in which new vehicles replace older, scrapped ones in the market with significant improvements in fuel consumption (and CO_2 emissions). Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the options that are the most disruptive outside the expected present trend of around 5% per annum improvement in fuel/energy consumption. It is shown that depending on the vehicle size and type of energy source, the optimum vehicle life ranges from 8 years to more than twenty, with all electric having the longest optimum life. As the energy efficiency trend for new vehicles entering the market reduces, as it must according to the law of diminishing returns, vehicles need to remain in use for longer. On the basis of the median results from the projections, hybrid vehicles use the least long term (several model change overs) energy and produce correspondingly low CO_2-e. Depending on the technology, BEVs will be considerably worse unless there are major reductions in the embedded energy in the battery. The sensitivity analysis allows for conclusions to be drawn about many alternative scenarios that may exist in different regions of the world. These findings indicate that government policy should subsidise hybrids, in preference to the present support for all electrics i.e. BEVs.
机译：在本文中，研究了车辆（不同的尺寸和动力），以获得最佳的使用寿命，以最大限度地减少其温室气体排放和对全球变暖的贡献。该方法使用最佳的可用能量生产和使用数据进行生命周期分析（包括常规，包括材料，制造，耗材和回收/再利用），用于传统的混合动力，到全电流。还占车队中的年龄的变化，其中新车在市场上取代了旧的，报废了燃料消耗（和CO_2排放）的显着改善。此外，进行敏感性分析，以确定在燃料/能耗的预期目前趋势大约5％的预期目前趋势之外最具破坏性的选项。结果表明，取决于车辆尺寸和能源类型，最佳车辆寿命范围从8年到二十多个，所有电气都具有最大的最佳寿命。随着进入市场进入市场的新车的能效趋势减少，因为它必须根据收益递减的规律，车辆需要保持更长的时间。在投影中的中位数的基础上，混合动力车辆使用最低长期（几种模型变化）能量并产生相应的低CO_2-e。根据该技术，除非电池中的嵌入式能量有重大减少，否则BEV将相当糟糕。敏感性分析允许得出结论，这些方案可能存在于世界各地区可能存在的许多方案。这些调查结果表明，政府政策应补贴混合动力车，优先考虑对所有电器的支持I.E.EVS。

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