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Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets for Political Elections

机译：基于主体的政治选举预测市场建模

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摘要

We propose a simple agent-based model of the political elec tion prediction market which reflects the intrinsic feature of the predic tion market as an information aggregation mechanism. Each agent has a vote, and all agents' votes determine the election result. Some of the agents participate in the prediction market. Agents form their beliefs by observing their neighbors' voting disposition, and trade with these beliefs by following some forms of the zero-intelligence strategy. In this model, the mean price of the market is used as a forecast of the election result. We study the effect of the radius of agents' neighborhood and the geographical distribution of information on the prediction accuracy. In addition, we also identify one of the mechanisms which can replicate the favorite-longshot bias, a stylized fact in the prediction market. This model can then provide a framework for further analysis on the predic tion market when market participants have more sophisticated trading behavior.
机译：我们提出了一个简单的基于代理的政治选举预测市场模型，该模型反映了预测市场作为信息聚集机制的内在特征。每个座席都有表决权，所有座席的表决都决定选举结果。一些代理商参与了预测市场。特工通过观察邻居的投票倾向来形成他们的信念，并通过遵循某种形式的零情报策略来与这些信念进行交易。在此模型中，市场平均价格用作选举结果的预测。我们研究了代理商附近半径和信息的地理分布对预测准确性的影响。此外，我们还确定了一种机制，可以复制偏爱的长镜头偏见，这是预测市场中的一个典型事实。然后，当市场参与者具有更复杂的交易行为时，该模型可以提供一个用于进一步分析预测市场的框架。

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