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首页> 外文会议>NATO Mediterranean Dialogue Workshop on Desertification in the Mediterranean Region. A Security Issue; 20031202-05; Valencia(ES) >DESERTIFICATION - A NEW SECURITY CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN?
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DESERTIFICATION - A NEW SECURITY CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN?

机译：沙漠化-地中海的新安全挑战？

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Desertification (representing soil degradation) is one of the three nature-induced (climate change, hydrological cycle) and of three primarily human-induced challenges (population growth, urbanisation and food) of global environmental change. These six components closely interact and contribute to fatal outcomes: primarily to extreme weather events and hydro-meteorological disasters (drought, flash floods, storms) and environmentally-induced migrations. These two fatal outcomes may have - in some cases -societal repercussions that may trigger or contribute to domestic, regional and international crisis and conflicts and thus they may become an issue of both human, societal, national and international security. To illustrate the causal linkages: for example in Morocco in the 1980s and 1990s, the following chain of events could be observed: severe drought, increase in food prices, hunger riots, general strikes, the police and armed forces interfered to repress these violent upheavals and subsequently hundreds of casualties could be deplored. These cases were not listed as a conflict in the relevant conflict data bases. The paper is organised in three parts: In the first part, the complex casual interactions among six factors of global environment change, two fatal outcomes and three societal repercussions: crises, conflicts and conflict avoidance, prevention and resolution will be discussed. In the second part, different security concepts will be reviewed that may be of relevance for dealing with desertification as a security issue. In the third part, possible security relevance pro-active political strategies will be considered, to avoid, and prevent that desertification issues can pose security challenges, and to contribute to a resolution of the desertification driven violence.
机译：荒漠化（代表土壤退化）是自然界的三个自然因素（气候变化，水文循环）和全球环境变化的三个主要人为因素（人口增长，城市化和粮食）挑战之一。这六个部分密切相互作用，并导致致命后果：主要是极端天气事件和水文气象灾害（干旱，山洪，暴风雨）和环境引起的迁徙。这两个致命的后果在某些情况下可能会造成社会影响，从而引发或助长国内，区域和国际危机和冲突，因此它们可能成为人类，社会，国家和国际安全的问题。为了说明因果关系：例如在1980年代和1990年代的摩洛哥，可以观察到以下一系列事件：严重干旱，食品价格上涨，饥饿暴动，大罢工，警察和武装部队干预以镇压这些暴力动荡随后可能会伤亡数百人。这些案例未在相关冲突数据库中列为冲突。本文分为三个部分：第一部分，将讨论全球环境变化的六个因素，两个致命的后果和三个社会影响之间的复杂的偶然相互作用：危机，冲突和避免冲突，预防和解决。在第二部分中，将审查不同的安全概念，这些概念可能与将荒漠化作为安全问题处理有关。在第三部分中，将考虑可能的与安全相关的积极政治战略，以避免和防止荒漠化问题可能构成安全挑战，并有助于解决由荒漠化驱动的暴力。

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