首页> 外文会议>Norwegian Petroleum Society Conference on Quantification and Prediction of Hydrocarbon Resources 6-8 December 1993, Stavanger, Norway >Risk analysis and full-cycle probabilistic modelling of prospects: a prototype system developed for the Norwegian shelf
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Risk analysis and full-cycle probabilistic modelling of prospects: a prototype system developed for the Norwegian shelf

机译:风险分析和前景的全周期概率建模:为挪威架子开发的原型系统

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摘要

A probabilistic modelling methodology for reserves, engineering and economic risk analysis was developed for the evaluation of exploratory prospects on the Norwegian shelf. The methodology utilizes a Monte Carlo-type parameter-sampling technique to derive risk versus reserves and risk versus net present value probability distributions; these provide standard decision criteria for a prospect. The system includes an analysis technique that integrates, where possible, historical sucess ratio with conventional risk factors.
机译:开发了一种用于储量,工程和经济风险分析的概率建模方法,用于评估挪威大陆架上的勘探前景。该方法利用蒙特卡洛型参数抽样技术来推导风险与储备的关系,以及风险与净现值的概率分布;这些为潜在客户提供了标准决策标准。该系统包括一种分析技术,该技术在可能的情况下将历史成功率与常规风险因素集成在一起。

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