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首页> 外文会议>Offshore Technology Conference;ExxonMobil;Aseeder;Schlumberger >Making the Most of Probabilistic Marine Forecasts on Timescales of Days, Weeks and Months Ahead
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Making the Most of Probabilistic Marine Forecasts on Timescales of Days, Weeks and Months Ahead

机译：充分利用未来几天，几周和几个月的时间尺度进行概率海洋预测

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Marine forecasts are essential to operational planning, with decisions able to be guided by a host of differentrnweather products spanning a period of days, weeks and even months ahead. The correct selection andrnsubsequent application of these different types of weather products has the potential to save many thousandsrnof dollars per day in operational downtime, however this is only possible when the science underpinningrnthese marine forecasts is properly understood by the user. In the current economic context, this is especiallyrnrelevant to the offshore industry – whose use of forecasting technology is traditionally very conservative, andrntherefore whose planning is often more reactive – allowing large savings (e.g. mobilization / demobilisationrncosts) if robust decisions are made as early as possible. Two established methods for the interpretationrnof probabilistic data based on cost-loss and weather regime analysis are described and applied to oceanrnwave forecasting. It is suggested the selection of methods will be dependant on the timescales of interest,rnwith the cost-loss analysis optimised for supporting decisions at timescales on days to weeks ahead andrnthe weather regime analysis optimized for supporting decisions at timescales of weeks to months ahead.rnThe application of these methods are illustrated from the point of view of a North Sea asset managerrnplanning the mobilization of equipment / personnel under conditions of calm weather, and the protection ofrnequipment / personnel under conditions of severe weather. For such a user, efficient operational planningrnwill be best supported by the use of marine forecasts across all such timescales, from days to months ahead.rnIt is intended that this will enable more informed decision-making, and help reduce operational costs, byrnpromoting increased confidence in longer-range forecasts than are typically used by the offshore oil & gasrnand marine renewable energy sector.
机译：海洋预报对于运营计划至关重要，决策可以在未来数天，数周甚至数月的时间内使用多种不同的天气产品进行指导。正确选择和随后应用这些不同类型的天气产品有可能每天节省数千美元的运营停机时间，但是，只有当用户正确理解了支持这些海洋预报的科学知识时，才有可能。在当前的经济背景下，这与离岸行业特别相关-预测技术在传统上非常保守，因此其计划通常更具响应性-如果尽早做出明智的决定，可以节省大量资金（例如，动员/复员成本） 。描述了两种基于成本损失和天气状况分析的解释概率数据的既定方法，并将其应用于海浪预报。建议方法的选择取决于感兴趣的时间尺度，同时优化成本损失分析以支持未来几天至几周的时间尺度的决策，而天气状况分析则优化为支持未来几周至几个月的时间尺度的决策。从北海资产管理公司的计划角度说明了这些方法的应用，该公司计划在天气晴朗的情况下动员设备/人员，并在恶劣天气的情况下保护设备/人员。对于这样的用户，将在未来几天至几个月内使用所有此类时间范围内的海洋预报，为有效的运营计划提供最佳支持。rn旨在通过提高信任度来实现更明智的决策，并帮助降低运营成本。的预测范围比海上石油天然气和海洋可再生能源部门的预测范围大。

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