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首页> 外文会议>Power and energy systems : Innovative smart grid technologies for sustainable power and energy systems >ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS FOR COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR PLANT UNDER FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS FOR COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR PLANT UNDER FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES

机译：未来不确定性下煤炭，天然气和核电站的发电投资组合分析

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摘要

High and volatile fossil fuel prices, growing concerns over energy security and the risk of climate change have all contributed to revived interest in nuclear power around the world. This is particularly the case in fast developing ASEAN countries. However, there is still considerable uncertainty about the prospects of nuclear power in terms of its economic viability and associated risks given a highly uncertain future energy industry context. This paper employs a stochastic tool based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique to assess the expected generation costs and risk profiles of different electricity generation portfolios of coal, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT), and nuclear plants. The tool explicitly incorporates uncertain future fuel and carbon price, and plant capital costs into the analysis. Results from the model enable tradeoffs between expected system generation cost, associated risks and CO_2 emissions among generation portfolios to be identified. In this paper the economics of nuclear power in relation to coal and CCGT are evaluated for different portfolio mixes under a number of scenarios of future fuel and carbon prices in the context of the ASEAN region. Results highlight the important role that a carbon price is likely to play in making nuclear power an economic option.
机译：化石燃料价格居高不下，动荡不安，对能源安全的担忧以及气候变化的风险，都促使人们对世界范围内的核电重新产生了兴趣。在快速发展的东盟国家中尤其如此。但是，鉴于未来能源工业的高度不确定性，就核电的经济生存能力和相关风险而言，核电的前景仍然存在很大的不确定性。本文采用基于蒙特卡洛模拟技术的随机工具来评估煤炭，联合循环燃气轮机（CCGT）和核电厂的不同发电资产组合的预期发电成本和风险状况。该工具明确将不确定的未来燃料和碳价格以及工厂资本成本纳入分析。该模型的结果使得可以在期望的发电成本，相关风险和发电投资组合之间的CO_2排放之间进行权衡。本文在东盟地区的背景下，在未来燃料和碳价格的多种情况下，针对不同的投资组合组合，评估了与煤炭和CCGT相关的核电经济学。结果凸显了碳价在使核电成为经济选择方面可能发挥的重要作用。

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