The accuracy in fracture mechanics-based fatigue life predictions depends on uncer-tainties in parameters of the crack growth relation.The magnitudes of two sources of uncertainties,the initial crack length and the shape of a residual stress field,are here estimated and compared for an illustrative example: growth of a through-the-thickness crack from a hole in a butt-welded plate subject to constant amplitude loading.It is found that the uncertainties in material parameters and in initial crack length are larger than the uncertainty in the shape of the welding residual stress field.
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