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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the 4th Conference on Systems Science, Management Science amp; System Dynamics. >Emergency Policy for Renewable Energy Crisis Based on System Dynamics
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Emergency Policy for Renewable Energy Crisis Based on System Dynamics

机译：基于系统动力学的可再生能源危机应急策略

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摘要

Danish renewable energy share of energy consumption grew remarkably over the past 28 years and the government had set ambitious goal for the next 12 years. However, a global financial crisis is brewing underway, arising from the burst of US subprime mortgage bubble. There is a concern whether renewable energy can still maintain its momentum in face of this crisis. This study attempts to explore the possible impact from the perspective of non-renewable energy fuel price collapse, as a result of this crisis. Simulation result supports the hypothesis that government support and non-renewable energy fuel price are mainly responsible for the dynamics of Danish renewable energy share these years. It is discovered that the renewable energy share can stagnant or decline if nonrenewable energy fuel price is low enough, but increasing government support is able to alleviate the problem. Further studies are needed for full impact assessment and detailed policy design.
机译：在过去的28年中，丹麦可再生能源在能源消耗中所占的比例显着增长，政府已设定了未来12年的宏伟目标。但是，由于美国次级抵押贷款泡沫破裂，全球金融危机正在酝酿之中。令人担忧的是，面对这场危机，可再生能源是否仍能保持势头。这项研究试图从非可再生能源燃料价格暴跌的角度探讨这场危机可能带来的影响。仿真结果支持了以下假设：政府支持和不可再生能源燃料价格主要是这些年来丹麦可再生能源份额动态的原因。人们发现，如果不可再生能源燃料的价格足够低，可再生能源份额将停滞不前或下降，但是增加政府的支持可以缓解这一问题。为了进行全面的影响评估和详细的政策设计，还需要进一步研究。

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