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The Calculation of Beijing Potential Economic Growth Rate in the Future

机译:未来北京潜在经济增长率的计算

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This paper use the productive function method for the estimation of the 1978-2010 years of potential economic growth rate in Beijing in the aspect of the capital, labor and the total factor productivity. It predict that the potential economic growth rate of Beijing city range from 7% to 8% in "12th Five-Year Plan". Then it fall to 4.2%-5.2% in 2020, and fall to 3%-4% in 2030. The declination of potential economic growth rate will give the economic development of Beijing city a great challenge.
机译:本文采用生产函数法从资本,劳动力和全要素生产率的角度估算了北京1978-2010年的潜在经济增长率。据预测,“十二五”期间北京市的潜在经济增长率在7%至8%之间。然后到2020年降至4.2%-5.2%,到2030年降至3%-4%。潜在经济增长率的下滑将给北京市的经济发展带来巨大挑战。

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