利用三变量模型计算潜在经济增长率。计算结果表明：2010—2020年中国平均经济增长率可以保持在7．0％以上，其中实体经济增长可以保持4．9％，虚拟经济对经济增长贡献率保持30％左右，约2．1％的增长率，二者之和为7．0％。2010—2015实际 GDP 年平均增长8．2％，今后5年（2016—2020）年可以保持6．0％以上的平均增长率，所以，2010—2020年我国经济增长先高后低，并缓慢下降，形成“L 形走向”实现经济软着陆是可能的。%In this thesis,we calculated the potential economic growth rate of China by using the three variables model.The computing result shows that the potential GDP growth rate of China is about 7.0% during 2010 ~2020, real economy growth rate is around 4.9%,and virtual economy is 2.1%.The GDP average growth rate reached 8. 2% during 2010 ~2015,then the next 5 years grows more than 6% during 2016 ~2020.The GDP of China has kept to average growth rate of 8.2% during 2010 ~2015 then declines gradually with an average growth rate of 6. 0% during 2016 ~2020.Therefore,during 2010 ~2020,the growth of our economy is from being high to being low,declines gradually and forms a long-term downward L-track and soft landing.
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