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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the Twenty-eighth Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program(AMOP) Technical Seminar vol.1 >Use of Probabilistic Trajectory and Impact Modeling to Assess Consequences of Oil Spills with Various Response Strategies
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Use of Probabilistic Trajectory and Impact Modeling to Assess Consequences of Oil Spills with Various Response Strategies

机译：使用概率轨迹和影响模型来评估各种响应策略下的溢油后果

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The objective of this research was to evaluate the implications of alternative response strategies in an objective manner using oil spill modeling. There are many possible spill scenarios that could be modeled, as well as an essentially infinite number of potential spill sites where releases could occur. Thus, to evaluate the likely consequences of hypothetical spills, modeling was performed in probabilistic mode, i.e., by randomly varying spill date and time, and so environmental conditions during and after the release among potential conditions that would occur. Spills of commonly shipped crude oils at five representative spill locations in shipping lanes of major US ports (Delaware Bay, Florida Straits, Galveston Bay, San Francisco Bay and Prince William Sound) were modeled with alternative spill response strategies (combinations of mechanical response and dispersant use) to examine potential impacts.rnThe model results were analyzed to estimate mean, standard deviation (SD), and 5th, 50th and 95th percentile results for surface water and shoreline oiling, water column and sediment contamination, and biological impacts. The results of the modeling show larger decreases in wildlife and shoreline impacts with dispersant use than increases in water column effects, supporting the contention that there are more opportunities to save wildlife, shorelines, and sensitive habitats along the shore with dispersant use than there are risks of impacting water column biota. If the areas that would be impacted by surface oil are those where wildlife are concentrated, as they typically are near shore, and the water column impacts resulting from dispersant use would be offshore where water column biota are lower in abundance, the trade-off is much more heavily weighted toward dispersant use before oil comes near the shoreline. The results quantify the trade-offs between water-column resource and wildlife/shoreline impacts resulting from dispersant use that may be used in decision making, contingency planning and ecological risk assessments.
机译：这项研究的目的是使用溢油模型以客观的方式评估替代应对策略的含义。可以对许多可能的泄漏情景进行建模，以及可能发生泄漏的潜在泄漏地点数量实际上是无限的。因此，为了评估假设的泄漏的可能后果，以概率模式进行了建模，即通过随机改变泄漏的日期和时间，以及在释放期间和释放后的环境条件中可能发生的环境条件。在美国主要港口（特拉华湾，佛罗里达海峡，加尔维斯顿湾，旧金山湾和威廉王子湾）的五个主要溢油通道中，通常运输的原油溢油采用其他溢油应急策略（机械响应和分散剂的组合）进行建模对模型结果进行分析，以估计均值，标准差（SD）以及地表水和海岸线注油，水柱和沉积物污染以及生物影响的第5，第50和第95个百分位数结果。建模结果表明，使用分散剂对野生动植物和海岸线的影响减少的幅度大于对水柱效应的影响，支持以下论点：使用分散剂拯救野生动植物，海岸线和沿岸敏感栖息地的机会多于风险水柱生物群的影响。如果将受到地表油影响的区域是野生动植物集中的地区（通常是在海岸附近），并且由于使用分散剂而对水柱产生的影响将发生在水柱生物量较低的近海地区，那么就需要权衡取舍在石油接近海岸线之前，将重点放在分散剂的使用上。结果量化了水柱资源与野生生物/海岸线影响之间的权衡取舍，这些影响可能是用于决策，应急计划和生态风险评估的分散剂的使用。

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