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首页> 外文会议>2009 International Institute of Applied Statistics Studies(2009 国际应用统计学术研讨会）论文集 >The Empirical Study of Relationship between Marginal Propensity to Consume and Income in China
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The Empirical Study of Relationship between Marginal Propensity to Consume and Income in China

机译：中国边际消费倾向与收入关系的实证研究

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摘要

In late 2008, the financial crisis had a huge impact on the economy of the world. In order to keep the rate of growth, the Chinese government has made an economic stimulus package plan to invest 400 thousand millions (RMB) into the domestic market. However due to the low marginal propensity to consume (MPC), the multiplier effect of government investments is also in a low level. A crucial way to speed up the economic recovery is raising the amount of the consumption. Using the household income-consumption data of CHNS and applying the nonparametric local polynomial regression, we got the marginal propensity to consume of China. As a whole, the MPC is positively related to the income of the household while the overall MPC is relatively low. We also disclose the changing directions of the MPC in different household income levels. Especially we find the relation of the MPC and the income is like “inverted u-curve” for those households whose income are less than 50 thousand (RMB). Finally we present some feasible advices for China on how to improve the consumption in order to avoid the huge negative impact from the economic recession.
机译：2008年底，金融危机对世界经济产生了巨大影响。为了保持增长率，中国政府制定了经济刺激计划，计划向国内市场投资40亿人民币。但是，由于边际消费倾向（MPC）低，政府投资的乘数效应也处于较低水平。加快经济复苏的关键方法是增加消费量。利用CHNS的家庭收入消费数据并应用非参数局部多项式回归，我们得出了中国的边际消费倾向。总体而言，MPC与家庭收入呈正相关，而总体MPC相对较低。我们还披露了MPC在不同家庭收入水平中的变化方向。特别是，对于收入低于5万元的家庭，我们发现MPC与收入之间的关系就像“倒U形曲线”。最后，我们就如何改善消费为中国提供了一些可行的建议，以避免经济衰退带来的巨大负面影响。

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