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An Idea for a New Modeling Approach of Climatic Changes. A Correlation Study for Cyprus.

机译：气候变化新建模方法的构想。塞浦路斯的相关性研究。

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Mathematical Modeling in climatic changes prediction has been based on more or less simple energy balances considering the Earth along with its atmosphere, with the so-called solar "constant" taken as an invariant. However evidence has been supplied in previous WSEAS Conferences that this constant, S, does not remain a constant but it does fluctuate, following the cycles of the solar activity. Furthermore the transmission parameters concerning the input and the output energy, τ_v and τ_(IR) from/to the system Earth-Atmosphere also vary and this reflects the human activity leading to increased greenhouse gas quantities, being blamed for a dramatic climatic change the last decades. Thus, considering those fluctuating properties, the following equation for Earth's mean temperature, T, has been developed (A being albedo equal to 0.3 and a is the Stefan -Boltzmann constant) T~4=S(1-A)(1+τ_V)/4σ(1+σ_(IR)) with the following multivariate treatment: dT=(?T/?S)_(τIR,τV) dS+((?T/?S))_(S,τV) We need to obtain the derivatives: ?T/?S,?T/?t_(IR),?T/?t_V because all S,t_(IR),?_v change.
机译：气候变化预测中的数学建模基于或多或少的简单能量平衡，其中考虑了地球及其大气，所谓的太阳“常数”为不变。但是，在先前的WSEAS大会上提供的证据表明，该常数S并非保持恒定，而是随着太阳活动的周期而波动。此外，涉及到/到达系统地球大气的输入和输出能量τ_v和τ_（IR）的传输参数也有所变化，这反映出人类活动导致温室气体数量增加，这被归咎于气候的剧烈变化。几十年。因此，考虑到这些波动特性，已经开发出以下的地球平均温度T的方程（A反照率等于0.3，a是Stefan -Boltzmann常数）T〜4 = S（1-A）（1 +τ_V ）/4σ（1 +σ_（IR））经过以下多元处理：dT =（？T /？S）_（τIR，τV）dS +（（？T /？S））_（S，τV）我们需要求导数：ΔT/ΔS，ΔT/Δt_（IR），ΔT/Δt_V，因为所有的S，t_（IR），Δ_v都变化。

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