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Business Valuation under Uncertainty

机译：不确定性下的业务评估

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The paper focuses on practices of business valuation, in which habitually and most frequently only point estimates of inputs are regarded. It shows that under many common situations this process may be misleading and incorrect. It emphasizes that the pure deterministic analysis relying on point estimates ignores valuable information related to an uncertainty of our estimates. As a solution this paper suggests that the model should be based on probability distributions and the Monte Carlo Simulation, which enables incorporating the risk and uncertainty into the business value estimate. The simulation approach also offers relatively easy solutions to common problem areas, including the integration of expert opinions, nonrecurring events and dependencies between model variables.
机译：本文着重于业务评估的实践，习惯上且通常仅考虑投入的点估计。它表明，在许多常见情况下，此过程可能会引起误解和错误。它强调依赖点估计的纯确定性分析会忽略与我​​们的估计的不确定性有关的有价值的信息。作为解决方案，本文建议该模型应基于概率分布和蒙特卡洛模拟，这可以将风险和不确定性纳入业务价值估计中。模拟方法还为常见问题领域提供了相对简单的解决方案，包括专家意见，非重复事件和模型变量之间的依存关系的集成。

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