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首页> 外文会议>Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2012 Proceedings - Annual >Controllability-involved risk assessment model for carrier-landing of aircraft
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Controllability-involved risk assessment model for carrier-landing of aircraft

机译：飞机降落的可控性风险评估模型

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Are the risk levels of many mishaps (which include the carrier-landing mishap) directly related to the time available to correct the abnormal system state? In the case studies of past mishaps, it can be seen that the landing mishaps of carrier aircraft are often caused by the reason that the time available to control the aircraft or adjust its flight attitude is not sufficient. Moreover, engineering experience intuitively tells us that as the time available to take corrective action over a hazardous situation increases, the ability to exert controls and avoid mishap also increases. However, there is no evidence to prove this conclusion yet. We focused on risk controllability, and presented a certain variable “Time Margin”(Tm) which could characterize risk controllability as possible. Moreover, we established a conceptual model of risk, including the variable characterizing risk controllability, based on conventional risk assessment model which includes variables mishap probability and mishap severity. By using the carrier-landing process as a case, with the statistical data from real samples on carrier-landing performed aboard the USS Enterprise CVN-65, we implemented an empirical research program into the relationship between ability to correct landing attitude and mishap risk, to verify the rationality of the improved risk assessment model. The law of the relationship between Tm (the time available for the pilot to adjust the flight attitude and glide slope) and the risk reflected by the actual record data has been revealed. Statistical analysis shows that: Both the probability and the severity of landing mishaps are negatively correlated with Tm. In other words, it''s concluded that the risk is negatively correlated with the Tm. The sample size of aircraft landing is large, and the data are derived from actual record, therefore the conclusion is authentic and credible. It illustrates the argument that t- e more sufficient the time available to correct the hazardous situation is, the greater the chance of controlling or avoiding mishaps is.
机译：许多事故（包括航母着陆事故）的风险水平是否与纠正异常系统状态的可用时间直接相关？在对过去事故的案例研究中，可以看出，由于控制飞机或调整其飞行姿态的可用时间不足，常常会导致舰载飞机着陆事故。此外，工程经验直观地告诉我们，随着在危险情况下采取纠正措施的时间增加，施加控制和避免事故的能力也会增加。但是，尚无证据证明这一结论。我们专注于风险可控性，并提出了一定的变量“时间裕度”（Tm），它可以尽可能地表征风险可控性。此外，我们在常规风险评估模型的基础上建立了风险概念模型，其中包括表征风险可控性的变量，该模型包括变量事故概率和事故严重性。通过以航空母舰着陆过程为例，利用在USS Enterprise CVN-65上进行的航空母舰着陆的真实样本的统计数据，我们实施了一项关于纠正着陆姿态与事故风险之间关系的实证研究计划，验证改进风险评估模型的合理性。揭示了Tm（飞行员调整飞行姿态和滑坡的时间）与实际记录数据所反映的风险之间的关系的规律。统计分析表明：着陆事故的概率和严重程度与Tm均呈负相关。换句话说，结论是风险与Tm负相关。飞机降落的样本量较大，数据取自实际记录，结论是真实可信的。它说明了这样一种论点，即纠正危险情况可用的时间越多，控制或避免不幸的机会就越大。

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