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Epistemic uncertainty in reliability-based design optimization

机译:基于可靠性的设计优化中的认知不确定性

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Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) needs to take into account of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. It is critical to explore these uncertainty sources and evaluate their impacts on RBDO. This paper provides a comprehensive study of uncertainties, in which the uncertainty sources are listed, categorized and their impacts are discussed. Epistemic uncertainty is of our interest, which is due to lack of knowledge and can be reduced. We specifically discuss the epistemic uncertainties due to unknown constraint function and unknown random variable distribution. The strategies to address epistemic uncertainty are summarized. An I-beam case study is employed to illustrate the impact of epistemic uncertainty on RBDO, in which a Kriging model is used to approximate the unknown true constraint function and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) parameter estimate is used to replace the unknown distribution parameters.
机译:基于可靠性的设计优化(RBDO)需要考虑到偶然性和认知方面的不确定性。探索这些不确定性来源并评估其对RBDO的影响至关重要。本文对不确定性进行了全面的研究,列出了不确定性的来源,对其进行了分类并讨论了其影响。认识上的不确定性是我们感兴趣的,这是由于缺乏知识而可以减少的。我们专门讨论由于未知约束函数和未知随机变量分布引起的认知不确定性。总结了解决认知不确定性的策略。通过工字梁案例研究来说明认知不确定性对RBDO的影响,其中使用Kriging模型来近似未知的真实约束函数,并且使用均方根误差(RMSE)参数估计来替代RBDO。未知的分配参数。

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