NEURAL NETWORK PREDICTION OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH LONG LEAD TIMES

机译：铅时间长的质子事件的神经网络预测

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The high-energy particles that are emitted by the sun during Solar Proton Events (SPEs) pose a serious hazard to interplanetary and near-earth spacecraft causing damage to electronics, spurious signals and a general disruption of spacecraft operations. An analysis of GOES x-rays and full disk solar radio flux prior to proton events has revealed significant differences compared to times at which no proton events occurred. Selecting predictor variables using the F-statistic, neural network models have been generated which use data from tens of days prior to SPEs to predict their occurrence 48 hours in advance with a 65% success rate. This is an improvement in lead time of an order of magnitude over current SPE prediction models.

机译：太阳在质子事件（SPE）中散发出来的高能粒子会对行星际和近地航天器造成严重危害，从而损坏电子设备，虚假信号并严重干扰航天器的运行。对质子事件之前的GOES X射线和全盘太阳辐射通量的分析显示，与没有质子事件发生的时间相比，存在显着差异。使用F统计量选择预测变量，已经生成了神经网络模型，该模型使用SPE之前数十天的数据提前48小时预测其发生，成功率为65％。这比当前的SPE预测模型将交货时间缩短了一个数量级。

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来源
《Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference Sep 24-29, 2001 Vico Equense, Italy》|2001年|p.517-520|共4页
会议地点 Vico Equense(IT);Vico Equense(IT)
作者
Gareth Patrick; Steve Gabriel; David Rodgers; Simon Clucas;
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作者单位

University of Southampton, School of Engineering Sciences, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Highfield, Southampton, England, SO17 1BJ, UK;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类天文学;
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专利

1. Short-term Prediction of Solar Proton Events by Neural Network Method [J] . Gong Jian-cun, Xue Bing-sen, Liu Si-qing, Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics . 2004,第2期

机译：神经网络方法对太阳质子事件的短期预测
2. Prediction of energetic solar particle event dose-time profiles using artificial neural networks [J] . Hoff J.L., Townsend L.W., Hines J.W. IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science . 2003,第6期

机译：使用人工神经网络预测高能太阳粒子事件剂量-时间分布
3. Real Time Kp Predictions from Solar Wind Data using Neural Networks [J] . Fredrik Boberg, Peter Wintoft, Henrik Lundstedt Physics and chemistry of the earth, Part C. Solar-terrestrial and planetary science . 2000,第4期

机译：使用神经网络根据太阳风数据进行实时Kp预测
4. NEURAL NETWORK PREDICTION OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH LONG LEAD TIMES [C] . Gareth Patrick, Steve Gabriel, David Rodgers, Solar cycle and space weather euroconference . 2002

机译：长时间交货时间的太阳能质子事件的神经网络预测
5. Prediction of dose-time profiles for solar particle events using neural networks. [D] . Hoff, Jennifer Lynn. 2003

机译：使用神经网络预测太阳粒子事件的剂量时间剖面。
6. Network Events on Multiple Space and Time Scales in Cultured Neural Networks and in a Stochastic Rate Model [O] . Guido Gigante, Gustavo Deco, Shimon Marom, 2015

机译：培养的神经网络和随机率模型中多个时空尺度上的网络事件
7. FORECAST OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH NOAA SCALES BASED ON SOLAR X-RAY FLARE DATA USING NEURAL NETWORK [O] . Eui-Jun Jeong, Jin-Yi Lee, Yong-Jae Moon, 2014

机译：基于太阳能X射线火光数据的NOAA尺度使用神经网络预测太阳能质子事件
8. Prediction of the Time-Intensity Profile of Solar Proton Events [R] . Smart, D. F. 1979

机译：太阳质子事件时间 - 强度剖面的预测

NEURAL NETWORK PREDICTION OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH LONG LEAD TIMES

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