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Quality considerations in predictive modelling

机译:预测建模中的质量考虑

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Risk assessment provides the essential anticipatory element which underpins compliance with a regulatory regime based on goalsetting. It comprises a structured and systematic examination of the likelihood of harmful events and the consequences shold the events occur. It may be based on an extrapolation of past experience, with an in-built assumption that the past is representative of the futre. In many circumstances, there may be little or no past experience, either direct or plausibly relevant. The risk assessor must then construct a description of how events amy develop from a given initial state. Such a description is conventionally referred to as a model of the behaviour of the different elements of the system under stated influences. The model will often require the construction of a number of submodels for the different elements. Their linkage will in turn consitute part of the overall modelling framework.
机译:风险评估提供了基本的预期要素,可为基于目标设定的监管制度的遵守奠定基础。它包括对有害事件的可能性及其后果的结构化和系统的检查。它可能是基于对过去经验的推断,并有一个内在的假设,即过去代表未来。在许多情况下,可能很少或没有过去的经验,无论是直接的还是可能的相关经验。然后,风险评估者必须对事件如何从给定的初始状态发展进行描述。通常将这种描述称为在所述影响下系统的不同元件的行为的模型。该模型通常需要为不同的元素构造许多子模型。它们的联系将反过来构成整个建模框架的一部分。

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