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首页> 外文会议>Seventh International Conference on Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation Aug 5-7, 2002 Cambridge, Massachusetts >Understanding and Modeling Dynamics of Household Automobile Ownership Decisions: A Canadian Experience
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Understanding and Modeling Dynamics of Household Automobile Ownership Decisions: A Canadian Experience

机译：理解和建模家用汽车所有权决策的动力学：加拿大的经验

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摘要

The primary objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive dynamic model of household automobile transactions and choices at a disaggregate level to be used in a dynamic microsimulation modeling framework that can provide a direct forecast of consumer demand for personal-use vehicles given the available choices. A market-based decision making process and a transaction approach were applied for this project due to their consistency with the actual processes followed by a decision maker in a real world. The proposed framework has a nested tree with transaction choices (adding new vehicle to fleet, disposing one vehicle, trading one of the vehicles in fleet, or do-nothing decision) in the upper level and class and vintage choices in the lower levels. Different modeling approaches to operationalize such a framework were employed including hedonic price, multinomial logit, nested logit, artificial neural networks, and random parameter logit models.
机译：这项研究的主要目的是在分类级别上开发一个综合的家用汽车交易和选择的动态模型，以用于动态微观模拟建模框架，该模型可以在给定可用选择的情况下直接预测消费者对私人用车的需求。由于基于项目的市场决策过程和交易方法与现实世界中决策者遵循的实际过程一致，因此该项目采用了基于市场的决策过程和交易方法。提议的框架有一棵嵌套的树，上面有交易选择（在车队中增加新车，处置一辆车，在车队中交易其中一辆车，或者什么都不做）在下层交易选择。采用了不同的建模方法来实现这种框架，包括享乐主义价格，多项式对数，嵌套对数，人工神经网络和随机参数对数模型。

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