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首页> 外文会议>Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, Oct 2-6, 2000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil >STUDIES OF SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION OPTIONS USING THE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT LONG TERM ANALYSIS (DELTA) MODEL
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STUDIES OF SPACE DEBRIS MITIGATION OPTIONS USING THE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT LONG TERM ANALYSIS (DELTA) MODEL

机译：基于碎片环境长期分析模型的空间碎片缓解方案研究

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摘要

It is well established that the space debris population in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) may grow substantially in the coming century and beyond, unless remedial action is taken by space-faring nations to alleviate this potential problem. In order to evaluate the package of mitigation options providing the most efficient means of avoiding accelerated population growth in the future, it is necessary to employ complex computer simulation models to predict the long-term evolution of the LEO debris environment in high resolution. The Debris Environment Long Term Analysis (DELTA) model has been designed specifically for this purpose. The new DELTA model is introduced, including its approach for the detailed simulation of realistic mitigation measure scenarios. DELTA long-term environment projections for these scenarios are then analysed concerning their efficiency in reducing the future LEO debris environment. The implications of different post-mission disposal policies are considered in terms of the increased risk at low manned mission altitudes from de-orbited objects, and potential environment instability from objects being re-orbited to a high altitude LEO storage orbit. Finally, propellant requirements for satellite de-orbiting are estimated for chemical and electrical propulsion systems in order to complete the cost/risk/benefit trade-off analysis of different post-mission de-orbit lifetime limitation policies.
机译：众所周知，除非航天国家采取补救措施减轻这一潜在问题，否则在未来的世纪及以后，低地球轨道（LEO）中的空间碎片数量可能会大量增长。为了评估缓解方案包，为将来避免人口加速增长提供最有效的方法，有必要采用复杂的计算机仿真模型来以高分辨率预测LEO碎片环境的长期演变。为此专门设计了“碎片环境长期分析”（DELTA）模型。引入了新的DELTA模型，包括其对实际缓解措施方案进行详细模拟的方法。然后分析了这些场景的DELTA长期环境预测，以了解它们在减少未来LEO碎片环境方面的效率。考虑到不同的任务后处置政策的含义，是在低载人任务高度处因轨道脱离轨道而增加的风险，以及将物体重新轨道至高空LEO储存轨道时潜在的环境不稳定性。最后，估算化学和电力推进系统对卫星脱轨的推进剂需求，以便完成对不同任务后脱轨寿命限制政策的成本/风险/收益权衡分析。

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