A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM IMPACTS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS

机译：转基因作物长期影响的动态分析

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To study the long-term usefulness of genetically-modified agriculture via herbicide-tolerant crops, a simulation model is built by focusing on the fundamental environmental feedback mechanisms. The most critical mechanism is the evolution of resistance in weeds via natural selection. Agricultural sustainability is investigated under different policies and scenarios, in comparison with conventional crops under two herbicide strategies. In the first strategy, herbicide amount is a function of weed density; in the second it is constant. It is found that superweed emergence increases the rate of resistance evolution in weeds. Under the constant herbicide strategy, GM crop is more effective than the conventional crop. However, this strategy results in a higher rate of resistance development and more herbicide usage than the first strategy. In terms of long term cumulative yield losses, rate of resistance development and herbicide usage, the best policy is discovered to be planting conventional crops under variable herbicide strategy.

机译：为了研究耐除草剂作物对转基因农业的长期实用性，着重于基本的环境反馈机制建立了一个仿真模型。最关键的机制是杂草通过自然选择产生的抗性。与两种除草剂策略下的常规作物相比，在不同的政策和情景下研究了农业可持续性。在第一种策略中，除草剂的量是杂草密度的函数；在第二个是恒定的。发现杂草的出现增加了杂草的抗性进化速率。在恒定的除草剂策略下，转基因作物比常规作物更有效。但是，与第一个策略相比，该策略导致更高的抗药性发生率和更多的除草剂使用。在长期累积产量损失，抗性发展速度和除草剂使用方面，发现最好的策略是在可变除草剂策略下种植常规作物。

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来源
《System Dynamics Society International Conference; 20060723-27; Nijmegen(NL)》|2006年|P.3745-3767|共23页
会议地点 Nijmegen(NL)
作者
Burcu Tan;
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作者单位

Student, Department of Information, Risk and Operations Management (IROM) McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin 1 University Sta B6000;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类系统动力学;
关键词
genetically modified crops; herbicide tolerant crops; agricultural modeling; resistance development; transgenic weeds;

机译：转基因作物；耐除草剂作物；农业模型；抗性发展；转基因杂草;

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1. Amelioration of biodiversity impacts of genetically modified crops: predicting transient versus long-term effects [J] . Freckleton RP., Stephens PA., Sutherland WJ., The Royal Society Proceedings B: Biological Sciences . 2004,第1536期

机译：改善转基因作物对生物多样性的影响：预测暂时影响与长期影响
2. Trade and Distributional Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops in India: A CGE Analysis [J] . Amrita Chatterjee, Sanjib Pohit, Arpita Ghose Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research . 2016,第3期

机译：印度转基因作物的贸易和分销影响：CGE分析
3. Comparative environmental impact assessment of herbicides used on genetically modified and non-genetically modified herbicide-tolerant canola crops using two risk indicators [J] . Danielle P. Oliver, Rai S. Kookana, Rosalind B. Miller, The Science of the Total Environment . 2016,第Jula1期

机译：使用两个风险指标对转基因和非转基因耐除草剂油菜作物上使用的除草剂进行比较环境影响评估
4. Long Term Consequences of Genetically Modified Crops in Agriculture [C] . Gokhan Dogan, Ozge Karanfil International conference of the System Dynamics Society . 2002

机译：农业转基因作物的长期后果
5. A meta-analysis study of welfares of genetically modified crops. [D] . Shang, Yuze. 2014

机译：对转基因作物的福利进行的荟萃分析研究。
6. Amelioration of biodiversity impacts of genetically modified crops: predicting transient versus long-term effects. [O] . R. P. Freckleton, P. A. Stephens, W. J. Sutherland, 2004

机译：改善转基因作物对生物多样性的影响：预测暂时和长期的影响。
7. Amelioration of biodiversity impacts of genetically modified crops: predicting transient versus long-term effects. [O] . Freckleton, R. P., Stephens, P. A., Sutherland, W. J., 2004

机译：改善转基因作物对生物多样性的影响：预测暂时和长期的影响。

A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM IMPACTS OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS

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